It’s an AFC South showdown at NRG Stadium on Sunday, October 27, with the Indianapolis Colts visiting the Houston Texans.
This will be the divisional rivals' second meeting of the season, and our top Colts vs. Texans predictions and same-game parlay NFL picks call for Houston and quarterback C.J. Stroud to sweep the season series with a Week 8 win.
Colts vs Texans SGP for Week 8
Texans moneyline
C.J. Stroud Over 241.5 passing yards
Dalton Schultz Over 29.5 receiving yards
The Houston Texans have been a force on defense with the second-fewest yards per play allowed and second-ranked defensive DVOA. The Texans also enter Week 8 fourth in sacks, fourth in pass-rush win rate, and second in run-stop win rate.
Playing at NRG Stadium has also been kind to the Texans. They’ve won all three games on home-field this season and five of their past six dating back to last year.
The Indianapolis Colts remain committed to quarterback Anthony Richardson, and he’s turned the ball over seven times across five games while posting the second-lowest success rate and second-lowest PFF offense grade among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks.
I’m also expecting a bounce-back game from Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud. He was pressured on 15 of 29 dropbacks against the Green Bay Packers last week, and Stroud posted his lowest PFF passing grade while throwing for a season-low 4.1 yards per target and 61.1 adjusted completion percentage.
A return to NRG Stadium should help Stroud, as he's averaged 312 passing yards with an 8.2 YPA and 68.4 completion percentage across his three home games. On the road, his numbers have dipped to 181.8 passing yards, 6.3 yards per attempt, and a 64.3% completion rate.
Additionally, the Colts rank 23rd in pass-rush win rate and 22nd in pass-rush grade per PFF, while also allowing the eighth-highest EPA per dropback and a healthy 7.6 YPA and 68.5 CMP%.
Meanwhile, Houston tight end Dalton Schultz is positioned for his best game of the season with Indy allowing a league-high 87.8 catch percentage to the position and a healthy 7.69 yards per target.
Schultz has been relatively quiet in his second season with the Texans, as his 57.6% catch rate, 9.0 yards per reception, 3.2 yards after the catch per reception and 8.0 aDOT are all below last year’s respective 70.2%, 10.8, 4.3 and 8.2 marks. This is a buy-low spot considering he closed with a 35.5 total in Houston’s final postseason game last year.
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