Two teams heading in opposite directions face off on Sunday when the Detroit Lions host the Tennessee Titans.
Mason Rudolph is trending towards starting at quarterback for Tennessee with Will Levis injured but my Titans vs. Lions predictions think that the backup QB might be undervalued.
Here are my NFL picks for this October 27 clash set for 1:00 p.m. at Ford Field, live on FOX.
Titans vs Lions predictions & picks
Spread
This is a massive spread with the Detroit Lions installed at -11.5 but it's well deserved. Detroit has been one of the best teams in the league and is coming off a road win against the previously unbeaten Vikings. Meanwhile, Tennessee is fresh off a 24-point loss and is just 1-5 straight up and against the spread. It also looks like they're waving the white flag after trading away wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and top linebacker Ernest Jones IV.
Moneyline
Since the Lions are double-digit favorites in this contest, their moneyline is sitting at -670 which may as well be unplayable. The Titans' solid defense might help them keep this game within this big number but I don't see them pulling off the upset, so avoid betting on them to win outright.
Over/Under
The total opened at 46.5 and has ticked down to 45 which makes sense since the Titans have struggled on offense but lead the league in defensive success rate. Detroit QB Jared Goff has been highly efficient but the Lions typically need to establish the run in order to open up their passing game. That won't be easy against a Titans defense that is fourth in rush EPA and holds opposing running backs to just 3.5 yards per carry.
My Titans vs Lions best bet
Mason Rudolph Over 195.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It looks like Will Levis will miss his second-straight game which means another start for Mason Rudolph. Rudolph might actually be a slight upgrade on the turnover-prone Levis and he completed 25-of-40 passes for 215 yards versus the Bills last week. He wasn't named last week's starter until game day but he's been taking first-team reps this week so he should be better prepared.
Rudolph made four starts last year and despite playing in a run-first Steelers offense with limited weapons, he still managed to produce. He threw for 229 yards on the road against Buffalo in the playoffs, completed 18-of-24 passes for 274 yards in Seattle, and torched the Bengals for 290 yards.
The only start where he threw for fewer than 220 yards last season came against Baltimore's elite pass defense in freezing rain, and he was still an efficient 18-of-20 for 152 yards in a victory. He'll find it much easier to throw indoors at Ford Field on Sunday. Especially with the Detroit Lions defense ranked 18th in the league in dropback success rate and 27th in passing yards allowed per game (245.8).
There are concerns about his WR corps since Calvin Ridley is questionable with a foot injury but books have released receiving prop numbers for him which is a strong indication he'll play. And let's not clutch our pearls over the trade of DeAndre Hopkins who had just 173 receiving yards through six weeks and clearly wasn't performing like his past self.
With the Lions installed as double-digit faves in this matchup, there's also a good chance that the Titans will play with a negative game script and be forced to abandon the run.
Titans vs Lions same-game parlay
Mason Rudolph o195.5 passing yards
Lions Alt spread -6.5
Amon-Ra St. Brown o72.5 receiving yards
On the surface, the Lions seem like the obvious play on the spread, after all, they've been an ATS machine at home going 21-9 ATS during the Dan Campbell era. However, this is the first time they've laid more than 10 points and in the four games where they were favored by more than a TD, they went 1-3 ATS. Books also seem to undervalue Rudolph who has gone 10-5 ATS as a starter. I still like the Lions to win but I'll take an alternative line below that key number of 7 and throw it in this parlay.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was the most consistent receiver in the NFL last season, racking up 75+ receiving yards in 15 of his final 18 games. St. Brown has seen his targets tick down this year due to the emergence of Jameson Williams but he has still posted 75+ yards in three of his last five contests. With Williams out with a suspension this week and the Titans likely missing lockdown corner L'Jarius Snead for the second-straight game, expect St. Brown to put up big numbers.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Titans vs Lions odds
Titans vs Lions live odds
Titans vs Lions opening odds
- Spread: Tennessee +10.5 | Detroit -10.5
- Moneyline: Tennessee +400 | Detroit -550
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Titans vs Lions betting trend to know
The Titans have gone Under their team total in 12 of their last 17 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Lions.
How to watch Titans vs Lions
| Location: | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-27, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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