The Atlanta Falcons head to Raymond James Stadium to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the second meeting of the year between the NFC South rivals in Week 8.
Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson has run wild the past three weeks, and my Falcons vs. Buccaneers predictions and NFL picks are calling for another big week for the back against the vulnerable Tampa Bay run defense on Sunday, October 27.
Falcons vs Buccaneers predictions & picks
Spread
Shops have tested the Falcons at both -3 and -1.5 for stretches, but the consensus spread as of Friday is Atlanta -2.5, including at BetMGM. With the number below a field-goal margin, I like the road favorite, and I also wouldn’t be surprised if this spread moved back to Atlanta -3 by Sunday.
Moneyline
I’m anticipating Atlanta pulling away from Tampa, with the injuries to Buccaneers wide receivers Chris Godwin (ankle) and Mike Evans (hamstring) being too much for the Bucs to overcome Sunday. There was early back-and-forth action on this moneyline at BetMGM, but the Falcons have settled at -143 since Tuesday.
Over/Under
There’s been a notable move to the Under at BetMGM, with the opening 48.5 long gone and the number sitting at 46 as of Friday morning. I’m bullish about the Over because I think Tampa quarterback Baker Mayfield and offensive coordinator Liam Coen can still put points on the board. It’s not out of the question to wait and see if the total continues to drop, either, though.
My Falcons vs Buccaneers best bet
Bijan Robinson Over 61.5 rushing yards (-118 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson was held to 61 rushing yards by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5, but Robinson piled up the yardage on just 12 carries. He went for 5.1 yards per tote while recording a season-high 3.92 yards after contact and a 45.9 breakaway percentage.
Robinson is going to handle more than 12 carries in the Week 8 rematch.
The Buccaneers' stop unit hasn’t been particularly tough against the run, either.
Tampa Bay has surrendered the third-highest yards per carry (5.28) while ranking 29th in run-stop win rate and 28th in run-defense grade per PFF. The Buccaneers defense also sports the fourth-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding 5.43 adjusted yards per carry, according to our leading NFL player props projection system.
Additionally, I also value Robinson posting his two highest PFF run grades the past two weeks, and him putting together an impressive three-game stretch consisting of 259 rushing yards and 5.4 yards per carry dating back to the Week 5 date with the Bucs.
The good times keep rolling for Robinson at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday.
Falcons vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
Over 46
Bijan Robinson Over 62.5 rushing yards
Kyle Pitts Over 42.5 receiving yards
As noted, I’m anticipating both offenses to have success on Sunday. Atlanta and Tampa Bay respectively rank 22nd and 28th in points allowed per game and 23rd and 22nd in EPA per play allowed. Additionally, neither has impressed in the trenches. The Falcons are 25th in pass-rush win rate and 28th in run-stop win rate and the Bucs sport respective 22nd and 29th ranks.
Plus, Tampa quarterback Baker Mayfield sports a sixth-ranked 7.9 yards per attempt and third-ranked 70.5 completion percentage, while also ranking seventh in EPA per play and second in success rate. The injuries to the receiving corps hurt, but they won't cripple the Tampa attack Sunday.
Turning to Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts, he’s cleared this total in four of the past five games, including turning his 22 targets into 17 receptions for 223 yards the past three weeks. The Bucs have allowed the second-highest yards per target (9.41) and fifth-highest catch percentage (79.5%) to opposing tight ends this season, too.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Falcons vs Buccaneers odds
Falcons vs Buccaneers live odds
Falcons vs Buccaneers opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta -2 | Tampa Bay +2
- Moneyline: Atlanta -123 | Tampa Bay +109
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 | Under 45.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Falcons vs Buccaneers betting trend to know
The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.70 Units / 15% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Buccaneers.
How to watch Falcons vs Buccaneers
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-27, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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