Commanders vs Rams Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 15: Slye Guy

The wheels have completely come off for the Washington Commanders, who have stumbled to 4-9 after starting the season off with two feel-good wins over the Cardinals and Broncos.

With the offense in the abyss, a Week 15 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams is looking like a daunting one. Can Washington ride its defense to, at the very least, cover the NFL odds for it's backers?

Let's get right into it with our in-depth preview and free NFL picks for Commanders vs. Rams on Sunday, December 17.

Commanders vs Rams odds

Commanders vs Rams predictions

In theory, this is a very troublesome spot for the Washington Commanders. There’s a decent chance starting running back Brian Robinson will miss this one, and given PFF has him as the 10th-best running back in the game by WAR that loss will certainly be felt. Antonio Gibson hasn’t been spectacular in relief this year, so it’s hard to see the Commanders moving the ball with ease.

With that said, the Los Angeles Rams defense has been slacking all year, ranking 16th in run-stop win rate according to ESPN and Sam Howell has begun to play better football, at least when he hasn’t been pressured. This line has been awful at stopping opposing pass rushers, which has led to Howell having a tumultuous season, but L.A. is once again a middling team in this regard, ranking 17th in pass rush win rate.

Not only has starting linebacker Michael Hoecht been limited at practice this week, the Rams also have three banged-up receivers in Tyler Higbee, Ben Skowronek, and Tutu Atwell, the latter has a concussion. This Rams team could be hurting on offense when we get to Sunday, and with a mediocre showing on the defensive side of the ball that could lead to a close game.

The Commanders have been struggling mightily against the pass this year, but they’ve had very few promising matchups in the last six weeks as they’ve begun to figure things out in the secondary. The let-off from Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa to Matt Stafford will be a real one, given Stafford finds himself just narrowly inside the top 20 in efficiency this year.

This game is going to be won or lost by the Commanders' defense, and I do think despite some rough showings of late this is probably their best shot at a much-needed bounce-back performance. I think this is too much to spot Washington.

My best bet: Commanders +6.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Commanders vs Rams same-game parlay

Commanders +6.5

Joey Slye Over 1.5 field goals

Sam Howell 250+ passing yards

+305 at DraftKings

I have a general rule of thumb when it comes to games like this. If you have a bad offense on one side of the ball and a good red zone defense on the other side, bank on the kicker to have a big day. While I do think the Commanders should be able to move the ball given what we’ve laid out above regarding the state of this Rams defense, it’s certainly scary to look and see L.A. ranks 11th in red zone defense this year with opponents converting just 51.28% of trips into six points.

So, we’ll go with Slye to hit a pair of field goals here, which is something that was beginning to happen with regularity until the Commanders ran into two juggernauts in the last two weeks. Slye had gone 2-for-2 up until that Dallas game, and since he’s attempted just two field goals, making one. I think the Rams should be somewhat generous in the secondary, leading to a few chances for Slye here.

Along the same lines, this Commanders line is expected to protect Howell better than they have in some time given the win rates we have seen upfront from the Rams, and that should be enough to buoy his yards up over 250. He’s hit this number now in five of his last six contests, averaging 266.6 per contest, and the Rams have allowed a 250-yard passer in their last three games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Commanders vs Rams spread and Over/Under analysis

The Commanders rank 20th in pace this season, and when trailing they’ve been one of the slowest-paced teams in the league with a play every 26.91 seconds. While the Rams are expected to lead this game throughout, too, it’s worth noting they’ve been one of the teams to run plays at the slowest rate when leading by seven or more.

So, the pace we can expect would certainly not lend itself to a high-scoring game, nor would the injuries we’re seeing mount on the offensive side of the ball for both teams. With that, I don’t really see this game being the shootout that oddsmakers are anticipating.

We do have two weak secondaries here, but I think the Commanders’ defensive numbers are a bit inflated after a string of games against good passers. They’re relatively healthy on that side of the ball and showing some marginal improvements, and on the other side of things, their offense may take a significant hit without their starting running back.

I’m leaning squarely towards the Under here, but I’m incredibly fearful of actually playing this bet given that 53% of the tickets at DraftKings are on the Under here, but just 13% of the cash. With big money on the Over, it may be wise to stay away, though it does appear that big bettors believe the Commanders can move the ball which should encourage you here in a game where they’re getting so many points.

Commanders vs Rams betting trend to know

The Los Angeles Rams have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Rams.

Commanders vs Rams game info

Commanders vs Rams latest injuries

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