Dolphins vs Ravens Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 17: Miami Remains Motivated Against Baltimore

With the regular season winding down, stakes are incredibly high in Baltimore when the Dolphins play host to the Ravens today in Week 17 odds.

While both have clinched a playoff spot, neither team has locked up its division. The Dolphins also still have a shot at the top seed in the AFC, but they’ll need to complete the difficult task of upsetting the Ravens.

With both teams excelling in many key areas, I think the game situation for both squads will be a major factor in this contest. Let’s dig into the latest NFL odds as I provide my free NFL picks for Dolphins vs. Ravens on December 31.

Dolphins vs Ravens odds

Dolphins vs Ravens predictions

Instead of stringing you along with a list of positives and negatives for both teams, let’s not beat around the bush — I’m taking the Miami Dolphins to cover the +3.5-point spread.

While there are lots of statistics to back my pick, let’s start with why I think this game could be a letdown spot for the Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens are undoubtedly coming off their best win of the season. They were supremely motivated and felt disrespected as a 5.5-point underdog and went on to smash the 49ers in San Francisco by 14 points.

But while the victory adds to a list of incredibly impressive wins on the season for Baltimore, John Harbaugh's team hasn’t been at its best following elite-level performances.

The pattern started early in the season. In Week 2, they won outright as an underdog in Cincinnati but followed that up the next week by losing to the Colts at home. The next week they went into Cleveland and destroyed the Browns 28-3, but the week after, they suffered a disappointing 17-10 loss to the Steelers.

A few weeks later, they annihilated the Lions 38-6 only to beat the Cardinals by just seven points in their next game. The pattern continued in their next set of matchups where they obliterated the Seahawks by 34 points then lost the following week at home to the Browns.

We should also consider that the Ravens will be at a rest disadvantage after playing on Monday night and having to fly back to the East Coast. 

As for the mood of the Dolphins coming into this game, they just had a massive weight lifted off their shoulders by beating the Cowboys. The biggest criticism of the team, by far, was that they were yet to defeat a team with a winning record, but they put that to rest.

Had Miami not won, that pressure would have intensified even more. As a result, I think the Phins will play lose and thrive because of it.

While Miami’s offense has gotten headlines for most of the season, their defense is starting to get some shine after having some tremendous success in the second half of the season. Since Week 8, the Dolphins defense ranks first in EPA per play and second in success rate while also ranking first overall in pressure percentage for the season. Uncoincidently, Week 8 is when Jalen Ramsey officially started playing. 

The Ravens have plenty of impressive defensive statistics as well, but their performance against the 49ers was slightly misleading when you consider that San Francisco’s offense had 429 total yards off of 6.3 yards per play. They’ve also had a few bad performances at home during the second half of the season when they allowed both the Browns and Rams to score more than 30 points.

Even without my letdown game theory, I think the Dolphins can compete with the Ravens. We witnessed this last season and the year before that when the Dolphins emerged victorious in each matchup.

My best bet: Dolphins +3.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Dolphins vs Ravens same-game parlay

Dolphins +3.5

Ravens team total Under 24.5

Rashod Bateman Under 28.5 receiving yards

+250 at FanDuel

Let’s build off of that Dolphins spread by showing some love for their defense and some hate for Rashod Bateman.

Since Week 8, only one opponent has topped 24.5 points against Miami. That came to the hands of Tennessee in its unlikely comeback in Miami a few weeks ago, but let’s keep in mind that the Titans had just 13 points with around three minutes left in the game before the Dolphins collapsed.

That appeared to be a real wake-up call for the defense as they’ve since shut out the Jets and held the Cowboys to 20 points, which is one of their lowest outputs of the season.

As for Bateman, I don’t think this guy can be trusted. Over the last six games, he’s caught just 44% of his targets. It’s not rare to see a ball bounce off his hands, nor is it rare to see him go under this number of 28.5, which he’s done in five of his last six games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Dolphins vs Ravens spread and Over/Under analysis

I think many people were surprised to see this game open with a three-point spread, which led to the game being bet up to 3.5.

Both teams have been strong spread bets this season, each with 10-5 ATS records. Miami hasn’t been a strong bet as an underdog though, going just 1-3 ATS while Baltimore is a respectable 8-5 ATS as a favorite.

The total of 46.5 is comfortably below the average combined score of 52.7 in Dolphins’ road games and a tad below the average of 49.3 in Ravens’ home games.

While an exact repeat of last season’s game between the teams is unlikely, it’s worth pointing out that they combined for 80 points in that matchup. This year brings a different scenario, with Miami's improved defense and the game played in comfortable weather conditions in mid-September.

Dolphins vs Ravens betting trend to know

Baltimore is a league-best 12-3 ATS in the first half. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Ravens.

Dolphins vs Ravens game info

Dolphins vs Ravens latest injuries

Dolphins vs Ravens weather

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