The Houston Texans can clinch the AFC South with a win over the visiting Miami Dolphins on Sunday.
Miami hasn’t traveled well this season, and Houston has the advantage of coming off its bye week. My top Dolphins vs. Texans predictions anticipate the home team covering the number and tight end Dalton Schultz having success through the air in Week 15.
Find out more in my NFL picks for December 15. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from NRG Stadium in Houston, with the game airing on CBS.
Dolphins vs Texans predictions and picks
- Spread: Texans -3 (-115 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline: Texans -149 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Over/Under: Under 47.0 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Best bet: Dalton Schultz Over 29.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Dolphins vs Texans spread
The Houston Texans are coming off their bye week and should be rested and prepped on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins are just 2-4 on the highway (3-3 ATS), and they’ve also benefited from playing the second-easiest schedule per PFF.
On the flip side, the Texans are 4-2 at home, and I expect the Houston defense to be swarming Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa throughout.
Dolphins vs Texans moneyline
Miami doesn’t have a statement road win all season, and this Houston defense might be better than ever after already allowing the third-lowest EPA per play from Week 6 through 13.
With Houston able to clinch the AFC South with a win, the Texans will be up to the task on Sunday.
Dolphins vs Texans Over/Under
Houston has trended to the Under all season with a 4-8-1 record, and Miami has also gone Under the number in six of seven.
This is the second-highest total in Houston's last six games, so I'm siding with the recent trends.
Dolphins vs Texans best bet
My best bet: Dalton Schultz Over 29.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
While it was a bit of a slow start for Texans tight end Dalton Schultz, he’s coming off a solid Week 14 showing and has recorded 30+ receiving yards in six of his past 10 games.
Schultz is running routes on 54% of his offensive snaps and has garnered a respectable 15.4% target share. Add his 10.1 yards per reception and 8.1 aDOT both checking out as solid marks, and the veteran tight end is positioned to clear his O/U of 29.5 receiving yards against Miami.
Miami has allowed 11 tight ends to record 30+ receiving yards through 13 games, including five across the past four while surrendering the most receptions (32) and receiving yards (345) to the position during the four weeks. The Dolphins are also tied for the seventh-most receptions surrendered to the position.
Considering Schultz was trading with a receiving yards total as high as 40.5 in Week 9, getting 29.5 is all the more attractive with the favorable matchup that looms.
Dolphins vs Texans same-game parlay
Texans -3
Dalton Schultz Over 29.5 receiving yards
Jason Sanders Over 1.5 field goals
In addition to the already highlighted strength of the Houston defense heading into its bye week, the Texans also allow the seventh-fewest passing yards per game (198.8), and the Dolphins have struggled to run the ball for weeks. Miami has averaged just 59.4 rushing yards per game dating back to Week 10, and the Dolphins have the lowest EPA per rush during the stretch.
The strength of the Houston defense is against the pass, and I’m not convinced the Dolphins are going to be able to capitalize on the ground. After all, Miami ranks just 23rd in run-block win rate and 22nd in PFF run-block grade. A lack of ground success will also position Miami into obvious passing situations and allow the Houston pass rush to pin its ears back.
Turning to the final leg of this SGP, Miami kicker Jason Sanders has hit two or more field goals in nine of 13 games, and two of the outliers were when Tagovailoa was out with a concussion. Houston will gladly trade Miami field goals for touchdowns, and the Texans allow third-down conversions at the sixth-lowest rate (34.7%) in the league.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Dolphins vs Texans odds
Dolphins vs Texans live odds
Dolphins vs Texans opening odds
- Spread: Miami +2 | Houston -2
- Moneyline: Miami +125 | Houston -150
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Dolphins vs Texans spread and Over/Under analysis
- While there has been a move from -2 to -3 in favor of Houston as of Friday afternoon, I don’t anticipate patient Miami backers will receive a hook at +3.5.
- I wouldn’t be surprised if Texans -2.5 became available again before Sunday afternoon. I still favor the Houston side of this spread because of the noted advantage of coming off a bye week.
- As colleague Joe Osborne pointed out in his Week 15 betting trends, the past 13 Houston games with a total of 45 or higher have an Over/Under record of 2-10-1. Miami has also gone Under the number in five of six road games this year.
- These trends have also been slightly reflected in the line movement to this total at BetMGM. The number has moved from 47.5 to 47 multiple times at the shop, and that’s where it stands as of Friday afternoon.
- 56% of Covers Consensus users are backing Houston on the spread, while 68% are taking the Over.
Dolphins vs Texans betting trend to know
Schultz has recorded 30+ receiving yards in six of his past 10 games, and Miami has allowed the most receptions (32) and receiving yards (345) to the position over the past four weeks. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Texans.
Dolphins vs Texans game info
| Location: | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-15, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Dolphins vs Texans latest injuries
Dolphins vs Texans weather
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