Atlanta Falcons rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is set to make his second-consecutive start for the playoff-hopeful Falcons, while Washington Commanders rookie signal-caller Jayden Daniels is chasing an NFC East title.
Join me as I share my early Falcons vs. Commanders predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, December 29.
Falcons vs Commanders predictions
Early spread lean
Commanders -4 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is the leader of a Top 5 offense coming off a huge win over a tough Philadelphia Eagles defense.
Daniels slung five scoring strikes in the Commanders' come-from-behind Week 16 victory. His confidence is soaring, and he has the weaponry at his disposal to keep the good vibes rolling against the Atlanta Falcons.
Daniels and the Commanders can score enough points to cover the number. The Falcons' defense has put up some good efforts this season, but they're a tired bunch who are about to get lit up.
Atlanta benched Kirk Cousins ahead of Week 16 in favor of rookie Michael Penix Jr. The Falcons' offense dominated the Giants, and Penix made a nice debut, throwing for 202 yards with only one interception.
Bijan Robinson aside, the Falcons aren’t a consistent offense, and they could be missing top wideout Drake London. Washington’s D-Unit has gotten better each week, and it's held opponents to fewer than 19 points in two of the last three.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 47.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Falcons offense looked different in Week 16.
Penix didn’t throw a scoring strike, but he didn’t hurt the Falcons with the one pick he threw in Atlanta’s lopsided home victory over the Giants.
Another week of full reps will help Penix, and Robinson could run right through the Commanders' defense. Washington allows 137 rushing yards and one rushing TD per contest, and Robinson is averaging 4.6 yards per carry with an additional 7.5 receiving yards.
Daniels and Washington may have to step on the gas to counter Robinson. Daniels is playing like a veteran, his confidence is soaring, and I’m not sure Atlanta has anyone to stop the must-see TV Daniels to Terry McLaurin show.
That’s why I’m leaning Over. Washington boasts an Over/Under record of 10-5-0 to the Over because its defense forces Daniels into being a hero. Robinson and the Falcons' ground game may force another big day for Daniels, and why I’m leaning Over.
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Falcons vs Commanders live odds
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