Week 14 is dotted with a few excellent games to test division leaders, beginning Thursday night in Detroit and ending Monday night in Cincinnati.
However, inside those tilts, there are a lot of not-so-great matchups, reflected in the NFL moneyline odds.
It’s time to parse through the slate and share my favorite NFL picks for the week.
Week 14 moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Packers vs  Lions |
(+142) |
 Jaguars vs  Titans |
(-185) |
 Falcons vs  Vikings |
(-245) |
 Panthers vs  Eagles |
(-650) |
 Jets vs  Dolphins |
(-250) |
 Browns vs  Steelers |
(-285) |
 Raiders vs  Buccaneers |
(-270) |
 Saints vs  Giants |
(-258) |
 Seahawks vs  Cardinals |
(+114) |
 Bears vs  49ers |
(+160) |
 Bills vs  Rams |
(-218) |
 Chargers vs  Chiefs |
(+164) |
 Bengals vs  Cowboys |
(-238) |
Lines courtesy of DraftKings as of 12-3.
Expert Week 14 moneyline picks
Packers vs Lions
Packers +142
Detroit is the current favorite in the Super Bowl odds, but it’s entirely possible they could slide out of top seed in the NFC and into the Wild Card if they don’t take care of business down the home stretch against the Vikings and Packers, who are on their tail.
This is Green Bay’s (sort of) last stand to claim contender status, and if Jordan Love plays INT-free like he has in the last two weeks, things will get awfully tight in the North.
Jaguars vs Titans
Titans -185
Tennessee just got shredded by the Commanders, but there’s no way I can take Mac Jones on the road. In his last three meaningful appearances, he’s led the Jaguars’ offense to 33 total points.
Falcons vs Vikings
Vikings -245
We just watched Kirk Cousins look about as bad as an NFL QB could look in a loss to the Chargers, throwing four interceptions. The calls for rookie Michael Penix Jr. to take over at pivot are about as loud as they’ve been all season.
And then along come the 10-2 Vikings with defensive coordinator Brian Flores, throwing a bevy of coverages to confuse the veteran signal caller and mash up his already dented confidence.
Panthers vs Eagles
Eagles -650
The Carolina Panthers own the worst rushing defense in the NFL, getting gashed for 166.8 yards per game.
Not a good stat when welcoming in current rushing leader Saquon Barkley. While he runs wild on offense, keep tabs on what is emerging as a top-rated Eagles defense.
Jets vs Dolphins
Dolphins -250
The Jets are a literal train wreck. Miami lays a whipping to refuel its postseason hopes.
Browns vs Steelers
Steelers -285
Revenge game! Jameis Winston might be asking God to have JJ Watt to take it easy on him.
Raiders vs Buccaneers
Buccaneers -270
The Raiders are racing for the first pick in next year’s NFL Draft, while the Buccaneers are trying to chase down the NFC South crown.
The schedule couldn’t have been set up nicer for Tampa: following their bye week, six of the final seven teams they play have losing records, with Vegas being the third straight.
I’d hate to bet the spread on this one, but I’m confident the Bucs don’t blow this.
Saints vs Giants
Saints -258
About the only thing the Giants have done right this season is lose. They’ll take another "L" at home against a Saints team that has won two of its last three.
Seahawks vs Cardinals
Seahawks +114
First place in the NFC West is on the line, and the ‘Hawks are peaking at the right time with three straight wins, including a rain-soaked 16-6 victory over these very Cardinals.
Arizona collapsed in Week 13 to the Vikings, and an offense that scored 28 points or more three times during a four-game win streak has now put up just 28 points over its last two.
Bears vs 49ers
Bears +160
No team has taken more disheartening L’s than the Bears this year, but San Francisco might be the most disappointing team in the NFL this season.
While San Fran is technically still in the weak NFC West mix, this team is an injury-riddled mess, and the Bears finally close out a game they play well in.
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Bills vs Rams
Bills -218
With the East wrapped up (crazy!), thank goodness there’s an AFC top seed still dangling in front of the Bills.
That’s enough to keep them on the task at hand in L.A., where the Rams will test a Bills’ defense that has allowed 21 points or less six times during a seven-game win streak.
Chargers vs Chiefs
Chargers +164
K.C. is 9-0 in one-score games this year, and the ways they are continuing to win borders on sheer ridiculousness (Google Raiders-Chiefs finish).
Seriously, without Pat Mahomes running point, who would feel good about the Chiefs if they were your team?
A solidly-coached Chargers squad finally catches up to them.
Bengals vs Cowboys
Bengals -238
Joe Burrow’s numbers look MVP-ish, though his Bengals are — save for a miracle — into extended garbage time on their season at 4-8.
Beating up on the Cowboys at Jerry’s World — where they have just one win all season — is a first step towards that miracle.
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