Through three short weeks of football, NFL survivor pools have a kill rate akin to the “Final Destination” film franchise. And it’s been just as gruesome.
Of the nearly 3,800 entries in Covers’ 10K Pro Football Survivor Contest, only 115 (just 3%) are alive to see Week 4 after another slate of stunning upsets erased more than 80% of the remaining field.
I get to count myself among the lucky, or perhaps I should say the “fittest”. After all, that’s the key to survival, according to multi-time survivor pool champ Charles Darwin. I’ve been “fit” enough to follow my own advice.
Remember back in Week 1 when I warned you about following the most popular survivor pool pick each week? Well, that could be $10,000 worth of free advice because the most popular pick has gone down in each of the first three weeks, including the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past Sunday.
The pressure doesn’t usually start to mount until after October. But here we are, not even out of September, and I have to keep reminding myself to stay out of my way and not get cute with my NFL picks.
With that said, here’s my survivor pool pick for Week 4, as well as the “safest” bet on the board, which means nothing in this topsy-turvy 2024 season.
Best survivor pool bets for Week 4
Click on each pick to read the full analysis.
Covers Week 4 survivor pool picks
Houston Texans
Opponent: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Moneyline odds: -260 (72% implied win probability)
A 27-point drubbing would turn off most survivor pool players. The Houston Texans were manhandled in Minnesota in Week 3 but now come back home to face a familiar foe — and one they've owned in recent years.
The Texans are 16-4 SU versus the Jacksonville Jaguars since 2014, and they get the Jags in a tight Week 4 schedule spot.
Jacksonville was just shit-swatted 47-10 in Buffalo on Monday Night Football, leaving it little turnaround to get right before this AFC South showdown. This will also be the Jaguars’ second straight road game and third away spot in the first four weeks.
Houston was down starting running back Joe Mixon in Minnesota and faced a very aggressive defense from the Vikings. The Texans actually outgained their opponents in yardage and average yards per play, but turnovers and penalties (11 for 88 yards) snuffed out any chance of a comeback.
The Jaguars are not the Vikings. Jacksonville is 29th in EPA allowed per play, giving up 5.7 yards per snap, and allows a 52% success rate on third and fourth down plays through three weeks. That defense is on the brink of breaking thanks to an offense that can’t stay on the field, playing the third most minutes of any defense and now doing so on short rest.
Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence has completed less than 53% of his passes for 6.3 yards per attempt and sits only above Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson on the QB shit list entering Week 4. Houston ranks just outside of the Top 10 (11th) in EPA allowed per dropback and success rate per pass on defense.
Covers Week 4 safest survivor pool picks
San Francisco 49ers
Opponent: vs. New England Patriots
Moneyline odds: -550 (85% implied win probability)
Being featured in this spot has been the “kiss of death” for survivor pool picks the past three weeks, with two of those honors going to the Cincinnati Bengals.
According to the NFL odds, the San Francisco 49ers are the “safest” pick for Week 4, lugging a moneyline price of -550 when they host the New England Patriots.
As many poolies found out in Week 2 and Week 3, the Niners are not invincible. San Francisco was defeated by the Vikings and Rams as sizable favorites on the road.
The 49ers get to come back to the “City by the Bay” for Week 4, hosting a Patriots team that showed jack squat in a Thursday night squash at New York last week. New England has injuries on both sides of the ball, especially on the offensive line.
San Francisco has also been the walking wounded, down RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Deebo Samuel, and TE George Kittle. Quarterback Brock Purdy even showed up on the injury report with a bad back this week.
The Niners should be able to handle their business against the talentless Pats, but there are better opportunities to select San Francisco down the line when the roster gets healthy.
Most popular Week 4 picks in the Covers $10K survivor pool
Get your Covers $10K survivor picks in for Week 4
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