This week on the TD market, I’m going back-to-back on Anthony Richardson in a potential shootout with the Detroit Lions, targeting an RB coming off the bye but should get 20 touches, and not getting fooled by Sean Payton for a second straight week.
These are my three favorite NFL anytime touchdown bets and NFL picks for Week 12.
Week 12 touchdown props
- Williams anytime TD (+160 at bet365)
- Tracy anytime TD (+150 at Caesars)
- Richardson anytime TD (+175 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 12 TD props
TD Prop bet #1: Javonte Williams anytime TD
Best odds: +160 at bet365
Leading things off is my favorite TD of the week with Javonte Williams at +160. I, like many, was duped last week into thinking Audric Estime was going to be the lead back in this Denver Broncos backfield. He took 10 of the 13 RB opportunities in the first half last week vs. the Falcons, who the Broncos make look silly.
Bo Nix is slinging the ball and the offense is moving it, having scored at least 28 points in each of their last four wins. Williams was the only back to get red-zone carries last week and took one to the house for a +185 TD. There hasn't been a huge adjustment on his TD price despite retaking the No.1 role and facing the Raiders indoors.
The Raiders have dropped six straight games and have been outscored 188-109 across that stretch for an average score of 31-18. Denver will put up points again this week and Williams to get a TD at +135 or better is a solid TD play. Sean Payton will start him and the rest is up to him in an elite indoor matchup with plenty of positive game script.
TD Prop bet #2: Tyrone Tracy anytime TD
Best odds: +150 at Caesars
Byes can sometimes create great buying spots for TDs (and props) as two weeks can seem like a lifetime. That's the case with the New York Giants and RB Tyrone Tracy. He's scored in three of his last five games and even though he lost a critical fumble in OT vs. the Panthers, he'll still be the focal point of an offense giving the keys to Tommy DeVito.
I'm not downgrading the offense much and still expect Tracy to get his 18+ touches — a number he's hit in five of his last six games with him exiting early due to a concussion in the one low-volume game. The Giants don't want to pass the ball as Daniel Jones has put up some of the most laughable 1H stat lines over the last 30 days.
This TD price was even money in Week 9 and although a lot of that had to do with the matchup vs. the Panthers, a move to +150 is too much for a 20-touch back who is the focus of an offense. With Jones no longer vulturing carries, there might be even more value in this play in Week 12.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting healthier on defense but this is still a rush defense that ranks 31st in EPA/carry on the season.
TD Prop bet #3: Anthony Richardson anytime TD
Best odds: +175 at bet365
This was my favorite TD bet of Week 11 and was an easy winner. The price was as short as Week 3 and I assumed that after 10 carries and two rushing TDs last week, Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson would be around +130 for TD this week. I was wrong and therefore have to get on the A-Rich train again this week indoors vs. the Detroit Lions.
The Colts offense looked good and the passing game was surprisingly strong last week. Indy moved the ball well and could do the same this week vs. an injured Detroit defense. Detroit lost starting linebacker Alex Anzalone and now has 10 defensive players on IR, including Aiden Hutchinson, who was the betting favorite for defensive player of the year before going down in Week 6.
There should be plenty of negative game script for the Colts, which could help increase the passing volume and therefore the potential scrambling rate but I wouldn’t be surprised if this were a letdown spot for the Lions who have been playing almost too good of late. Either way, points are getting scored this week and A-Rich’s TD price is still a must-buy until it hits +130 or lower.
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