We're only two weeks into the NFL season, but everyone seems to have given up on the NFC East.
The Giants are being spotted almost a full touchdown vs. the Browns, the Cowboys are catching points at home for the first time since 2022 vs. the Ravens, and the Eagles went from lookahead favorites to late-week underdogs vs. the Saints.
My NFL picks will buy low in games concerning these three teams as I make my best parlay and SGP plays for Week 3.
NFL Week 3 parlay picks
| 🏈 Parlay 🏈 |  SGP  |
|---|---|
|
|
Ravens vs. Cowboys Over 46.5 (alt. total) |
Eagles +3
Giants +7
Bears vs. 
Colts Under 43.5Best Week 3 parlay
Eagles +3
Giants +7 (alt. spread)
Bears vs. Colts Under 43.5
I wanted to make sure I didn't get burned by the 2.5-point spread available at most books for Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints, so I went to BetMGM for this parlay.
The Eagles went from about field-goal favorites to about field-goal underdogs in a radical reversal from the lookahead lines for this game. I am shocked that there hasn't been buyback on Philly as of early Friday, but I have to be on the Eagles catching points vs. a Saints team crying out for regression.
New Orleans is simply not going to top 40 points every week this season. Derek Carr has not suddenly morphed into a superstar under center, and Alvin Kamara's trip in the WABAC machine vs. the Cowboys should be a one-week wonder.
I also believe the likely absence of AJ Brown is being oversold and that the Eagles still have plenty of playmakers like DeVonta Smith that Jalen Hurts can lean on. Don't bail on Philly just because they lost a late lead vs. the Falcons on Monday.
I'm bringing the New York Giants up from +6.5 (-105) to +7 (-120) here for my next leg. I don't think the Cleveland Browns should be favored by this much over anybody, regardless of location.
This game has the makings of a slog with the mediocre Daniel Jones and Deshaun Watson at the helms for their respective clubs. That evidenced by the low total of 39 hanging on this contest.
Low-scoring games logically lend themselves to tightly-contested ones as well. Though the Giants have dropped each of their first two games both SU and ATS (the most recent via a Commanders field goal as the clock hit 0:00), it's worth noting they covered in six of their final seven games last season.
I've found a solid total play to wrap this parlay up with Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts to go Under 43.5. This is a fairly low number, but I'd argue that it isn't low enough.
We're still waiting on Caleb Williams to throw his first touchdown pass. Luckily for him, his defense has been able to keep him in his first two NFL games. Anthony Richardson and the Colts offense have looked lethargic, save for a couple of home-run passes vs. the Texans in Week 1.
Best Week 3 SGP
Ravens vs. Cowboys Over 46.5 (alt. total)
CeeDee Lamb Over 78.5 receiving yards
Derrick Henry anytime TD
I'm paying just a few pennies to get the game total down 1.5 points. It's better than risking this first leg pushing on the true total of 48.
I haven't liked what I've seen from either defense so far this season. The Baltimore Ravens have been shredded for 257 passing yards per game so far, the worst mark in the league. While you could give this unit a mulligan for Week 1 when it faced Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on the road, what would the excuse be for getting picked apart at home by the Raiders' Gardner Minshew?
Minshew went 30-for-38 through the air in Las Vegas' survivor pool-shaking victory, engineering three late scoring drives. His favorite target was, not shockingly, Davante Adams. Tae's nine-reception, 110-yard day came on the heels of the Ravens allowing seven receptions and 103 yards to Mahomes' top wideout, Rashee Rice.
The Ravens' inability to stop the pass plays right into Leg 2 of this same-game parlay. CeeDee Lamb's receiving total is set as low as it's been in 10 games, even after posting 90 yards vs. the Saints in Week 2. He's had at least 90 receiving yards in five of his last six games dating back to last season.
The Dallas Cowboys defense looked fine against the stunted Browns in Week 1, but they had no answers for Alvin Kamara and a Saints team that not many people expected to start 2-0 with the best point differential in football. Kamara found the end zone three times vs. Micah Parsons & Co., a fact that should have Ravens running back Derrick Henry licking his chops.
Henry looks like he's fitting right in with Baltimore, as he's recorded a touchdown in each of his first two games of 2024. The four-time Pro Bowler also broke the plane at least once in five of his final seven games with the Titans.
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