With All-Star weekend now in the rear-view mirror, the unofficial second half of the NHL season kicks off tonight with a pair of games on the NHL docket — including a matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the New York Islanders.
The NHL odds like for Toronto to continue its winning ways and come out on top, and I think the power play comes through tonight for the Buds to give them the edge.
Find out why in my free NHL picks for the Islanders vs. Maple Leafs on February 5.
Islanders vs Maple Leafs odds
Islanders vs Maple Leafs predictions
It’s the third and final time these two clubs will play each other during the regular season, but the first since Patrick Roy took over in mid-January. Unfortunately, the New York Islanders have not responded as quickly to their new coach as Lou Lamoriello thought they would.
New York won its first game with Roy behind the bench but then lost the next three games prior to the All-Star break. A big reason for the skid was a porous penalty kill that gave up five goals on 12 opportunities (58%), and it ranked 26th in the league in expected goals over that span (10.29/60).
This feels like a good opportunity to fade the Islanders penalty kill and target a Toronto Maple Leafs power play prop for tonight’s best bet.
Enter Mitch Marner, who is +155 to go Over 0.5 power-play points.
That just seems like really good value considering Marner has 17 points on the man advantage this season and leads the team with six since the New Year.
The Leafs' power play was marred in a bit of a funk until the final game before the break where they netted two on the man advantage against the Jets — and Marner factored in on both of those goals with a pair of assists.
After a successful All-Star weekend for the Leafs crew, they’ll look to build off that momentum and continue that success here tonight against a New York team that is really struggling on the PK.
My best bet: Mitch Marner Over 0.5 power-play points (+155 at SIA)
Islanders vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay
Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer
Islanders team total Under 3.5
Maple Leafs moneyline
For leg one of my same-game parlay, I like for Auston Matthews to score tonight. He’s the league leader with 40 goals in 46 games and is coming off an MVP performance at the All-Star Game. He also has five goals in his last five games against the Islanders. I think he starts the second half of his season with a bang and pots one tonight, either at even strength or on the power play against a struggling Islanders PK.
Next up, I like New York to go Under its team total of 3.5 goals. It's cashed on this prop in eight straight games due to the Isles lack of high-end offensive talent. Assuming Ilya Samsonov continues to look the part of a No. 1 goaltender, I think he'll keep N.Y. to Under three goals for a fourth straight start and extend the Isles streak to nine consecutive games with three or fewer tallies.
For my final leg, let’s roll with the Maple Leafs on the moneyline. The Leafs are the superior team between the two clubs, despite losing the first two meetings earlier this season. Toronto is the better team and hasn’t had to travel as much given that the All-Star game was in town.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Islanders vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Maple Leafs come into tonight as heavy favorites at -165, with the Islanders entering as the road dogs at +140 odds. The Isles are just 2-8 in their last 10 on the moneyline, while Toronto has won four of its last five.
The total for tonight’s game is sitting at 6.5 goals, shading slightly toward the Over at -115, as the the Under is getting -105 odds. Both meetings between these two have needed overtime to cash the Over this year, with the previous matchup ending 4-3.
I actually lean Under in this one. Samsonov seemed to have built himself back into NHL form as he gets ready to make his fourth consecutive start for Toronto, posting a 3-0 record with a .960 SV%, and a .98 GAA in the final three games before the break.
Islanders vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs have hit the second-period moneyline in 22 of their last 30 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Islanders vs. Maple Leafs.
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Islanders vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Monday, February 5, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MSGSN, SN |
Islanders vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
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