Maple Leafs vs Islanders Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Toronto Stays Hot in N.Y.

We’ve got 13 games on the NHL slate tonight, including a matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the New York Islanders.

New York beat the Buds a month ago when these two last met, yet the NHL odds favor Toronto to win the rematch. The Leafs’ offense had a breakout performance on Tuesday, and I have a feeling that firepower spills into tonight’s contest on the Island.

Find out why in my free NHL picks for the Maple Leafs vs. Islanders on January 11.

Maple Leafs vs Islanders odds

Maple Leafs vs Islanders predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs enter tonight on a four-game winning streak and will look to continue their strong play against a New York Islanders team that has lost four of its last five.

These two clubs have been going in opposite directions since the flip of the calendar. In the four games since January 1, Toronto is 4-0 straight up and has outscored its opposition 16-3, while the Isles are 1-3 SU and have conceded 16 goals over that stretch.

I’m taking a look at the Leafs team total tonight, which is set at 3.5 goals. No team is generating more offense and scoring chances than the Buds since the New Year. Toronto is averaging 40.6 scoring chances over this four-game stretch, with 4.1 expected goals per 60 minutes of play, according to Natural Stat Trick. Those chances led to an offensive explosion in its last game when it netted seven against the lowly Sharks.

I’d certainly expect the Islanders to give Toronto a much bigger test than San Jose, but their recent play on their own end of the ice and in net hasn’t been too much better. New York has surrendered five goals in three of its last four games and sits in the middle of the pack in most defensive metrics.

Last season, Ilya Sorokin was able to mask a lot of those defensive deficiencies. This season... not so much. He's sporting a 3.20 GAA and a pedestrian .908 SV%. Sorokin is not the intimidating all-world goalie he was a year ago, and Toronto should be able to take advantage — especially since he's given up 14 goals over his last three starts. 

Additionally, the Leafs' new-look power play scored three times the other night against the Sharks. New York’s penalty kill ranks 29th in the NHL at 72%, with five goals allowed in as many games. This should give the Buds another chance to score and help get us to 4+ goals tonight.

My best bet: Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5 (-105 at SIA)

Maple Leafs vs Islanders same-game parlay

Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5

Maple Leafs moneyline

Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer

+230 at SIA

I like the Leafs to keep the streak alive tonight and win the game. Toronto has been playing some excellent two-way hockey of late and matches up well against this veteran Islanders core that is reeling after losing three of their last four games to playoff-caliber teams. 

For my final leg, let’s roll with an anytime goal from Auston Matthews. He scored back in the December meeting while unloading 11 shots on net and has lit the lamp in three of the last four games between these two squads.

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Maple Leafs vs Islanders moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Maple Leafs come into tonight as slight -130 road favorites, with the Islanders entering as +110 underdogs. As mentioned, I like the Leafs to win the game tonight. They’ve generated more offense than anyone in the league in 2024 and have been a Top 10 team defensively. With New York struggling in both of those areas, Toronto should be able to take advantage and get revenge after the 4-3 OT loss back on December 11. 

The total for tonight’s game is sitting at 6.5 goals — with the favored side being the Over at -120 — while the Under is offering even money (+100). The last three meetings between these two clubs have gone Over the number, including the earlier December matchup. However, the Leafs are playing far better defensively today than they were a month ago. If Toronto can keep playing this style of hockey, I like the value at even money.

Maple Leafs vs Islanders betting trend to know

The Maple Leafs have hit the third-period moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Islanders.

Maple Leafs vs Islanders game info

Maple Leafs vs Islanders latest injuries

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