The Toronto Maple Leafs have been without their captain Auston Matthews since November 3 but have been able to weather the storm, going 7-2 in his absence.
He returns to the lineup tonight with the Buds traveling to Tampa, and my Maple Leafs vs. Lightning predictions think he comes back with a bang.
Find out why in my free NHL picks for November 30.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning prediction
My Leafs pick
Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer (+125 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs are hoping to get back into the win column tonight after a loss to the Florida Panthers on Wednesday.
The Buds mustered up just one goal in that game, and it was the first time in weeks the team felt the giant hole left behind by Auston Matthews.
Toronto is getting its captain back tonight — along with other reinforcements — in a big rivalry game with two important points up for grabs.
Tampa and Toronto have been must-watch hockey over the last few years, and I expect nothing different tonight. There have been five or more goals scored in each of the last 10 meetings between the two teams, with seven of the games going Over tonight’s total of 6.5.
I expect a similar outcome again tonight, and the Leafs captain gets himself involved in his return to the lineup.
The three-time Rocket Richard winner struggled before his injury but insists whatever was nagging him early in the season is behind him now. If that’s the case, he should return to form quickly and start potting goals at his usual elite pace, not the pedestrian 8% shooting he had prior to the injury.
Plus, he’ll be paired up with William Nylander tonight. As a duo, they’ve been fairly dominant over the past few seasons, averaging 3.74 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
Matthews has always performed well against the Bolts. He has nine goals in his last 10 games against the Lightning and is over a point per game throughout his career against them.
Additionally, Tampa has been struggling over its last five games, allowing an average of four goals against per game, with Andrei Vasilevskiy posting a save percentage of under .900 in each of his last three starts.
In fact, the Russian netminder has just a .903 SV% and a 3.14 GAA against Toronto over the last three years.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning same-game parlay (SGP)
William Nylander anytime goalscorer
John Tavares 2+ shots
Over 5.5
For the first leg of my SGP, I’ll continue with the Matthews theme by betting on his linemate William Nylander to score tonight. He leads the Leafs in scoring with 14 goals this season and has a Toronto-high eight goals against Tampa in his last 11 meetings since the 2021-22 season.
Next on the SGP, I like John Tavares to record 2+ shots tonight. His season average is 3.52 shots per game, and he’s recorded at least two shots in three consecutive outings and in seven of his last nine. As long as he and Marner are on a line together, Tavares should get many looks at the net throughout the game.
Finally, let’s take the alternate Over of 5.5 goals. The Leafs have been stingy defensively this season, but it drops off a bit on the road, giving up an average of 3.44 goals per game. Meanwhile, Tampa’s offense puts up 3.55 goals per game at Amalie Arena.
Additionally, the Over has been a big play over the past few years in this matchup, with the total going Over 5.5 goals in nine of the last 10 meetings between the two clubs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds
Maple Leafs vs Lightning live odds
Maple Leafs vs Lightning opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto +1.5 (-275) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+200)
- Moneyline: Toronto -120 | Tampa Bay +100
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-110)| Under 6.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Maple Leafs vs Lightning trend
The Over is 6-3-1 over the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Lightning
| Location: | Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-30-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
Maple Leafs vs Lightning latest injuries
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