Saturday’s NHL odds nightcap features a Pacific Division tilt as the Los Angeles Kings host the Edmonton Oilers.
This matchup serves as the first meeting between these two divisional foes since they squared off in the first round of last year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs. Edmonton won that series in six games.
Will the Oilers take care of business once again, or can Los Angeles get some revenge? Find out in our free NHL picks for Oilers vs. Kings on Saturday, December 30.
Oilers vs Kings odds
Oilers vs Kings predictions
Taking the Under in a game that features Edmonton is always a “hold your breath” ordeal. With an offense spearheaded by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, this team can explode for six goals by itself at any given time.
With that said, if any team in this league can quell the Oilers’ offense, it’s Los Angeles. This season, the Kings rank first in the league in goals allowed per game and penalty kill percentage.
Their underlying metrics suggest that regression is unlikely as they also rank first in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5. Backing up this elite two-way team is goaltender Cam Talbot, who is firmly in the Vezina Trophy odds race.
Through 23 appearances in the crease, Talbot is 14-7-2 with a commanding .924 SV% and 2.11 GAA. There have now been six or fewer total goals scored in 14 of his past 17 starts.
Over that stretch, he boasts an 11-5-1 record with a .931 SV% and 1.89 GAA. This success could continue against Edmonton, a team he has historically dominated.
Through six career starts against the Oilers, Talbot is 4-1 with a .949 SV% and 1.72 GAA. There were six or fewer total goals scored in four of those six outings.
Meanwhile, the Oilers’ blue line is once again flying under the radar in terms of defensive efficiency. At 5-on-5, Edmonton ranks seventh in xGA/60.
Its biggest problem has been goaltending, but Stuart Skinner, who is slated to guard the cage on Saturday, has turned his season around since Thanksgiving. Over his past 11 starts, Skinner is 9-2 with a .919 SV% and 2.10 GAA.
My best bet: Under 6.5 (+105 at SIA)
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Oilers vs Kings same-game parlay
Under 6.5
Oilers moneyline
Just like Talbot, Skinner possesses a tremendous track record against tonight’s opponent. Through four career regular-season outings against the Kings, he’s 2-1 with a .950 SV% and 1.78 GAA.
There were four or fewer total goals scored in three of those four games. Both goaltenders are hot and can keep this game low-scoring, but I still trust Edmonton’s offense more than Los Angeles’.
At 5-on-5, the Oilers rank first in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) with a stellar 3.15 mark. Not only are they the only team north of three, but they own a .19 advantage over the second-place team, which does happen to be the Kings.
If the goaltending continues the way it has gone for each guy, then this narrow offensive edge could be the difference-maker for the underdog.
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Oilers vs Kings moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Kings opened as a –120 favorite and remain at that price at the time of writing. The market typically goes in favor of McDavid and the Oilers, and that’s where I suspect this line will move towards if at all.
That brings us to the total, which opened at 6.5, and also remains at that number. I don’t think we will see much movement in this market, given that we won’t see 6 in an Edmonton game while both blue lines and goaltenders command too much respect for this total to reach 7.
While the Oilers are typically a good “Over team”, the Kings own the third-best Under percentage in the league.
Oilers vs Kings betting trend to know
There have been six or fewer total goals scored in 14 of Talbot’s past 17 starts. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Kings.
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Oilers vs Kings game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, December 30, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC, BSW |
Oilers vs Kings latest injuries
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