The Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens will meet for the second time in less than a week tonight after the Habs got worked 6-2 last Thursday and followed that up with an embarrassing 9-4 loss to the Bruins on Saturday. Unsurprisingly, the Sens have taken the majority of the early money.
After winning seven straight meetings and the rate at which the Habs are allowing goals and shots, is targeting the Senators’ shot props the best way for bettors to attack this game even if the home side comes out motivated following a pair of ugly losses?
I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks for Senators vs. Canadiens on Tuesday, January 23.
Senators vs Canadiens odds
Senators vs Canadiens predictions
The Ottawa Senators have another dream offensive matchup tonight vs. the Montreal Canadiens, who sit 31st in GAA since the break at 4.00 goals per game and shots allowed per game at 34.5. It’s a club that has allowed 15 goals and 72 shots over its last two games and has given up at least 30 shots in 10 straight games. Ottawa has also outscored the Habs 36-17 over their last seven meetings — all Ottawa victories.
Montreal is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Bruins and has had three days to wallow in it while the Sens’ 3.92 GAA since Christmas is only better than Montreal and Columbus. That is keeping me off the Ottawa -1.5 at +165, but the Sens offense has an elite matchup tonight and will continue to pile on shots vs. a defense that is in transition with some recent roster moves.
Ottawa is getting stronger offensively with the return of Josh Norris and Shane Pinto, and the former has the best value in his shots on goal prop market.
He will be playing his third game since missing four contests with an upper-body injury. He is centering the top line and second power-play unit and has posted at least four shots in each of the games since his return. He should be fully acclimated tonight on the road vs. a team that gave up three SOG to Ridley Greig, who was centering that top line in the last meeting.
Norris’ SAT/60 and SOG/60 numbers rank him right near the second-best marks on the team and with the Canadiens likely rebounding after a bad loss on Saturday, the more neutral game script could help this top line continue to get big minutes.
The Habs can’t keep shots off the board and are also switching things up defensively after demoting Justin Barron and promoting Arber Xhekaj. Norris is centering the top line and has arguably the best SOG matchup in hockey. If Norris continues to get bigger minutes, this market could easily drop to -150 down the road.
My best bet: Josh Norris Over 2.5 shots on goal (-105 at SIA)
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Senators vs Canadiens same-game parlay
Over 6.5
Senators moneyline
First period Over 1.5
Nothing wild here but I do expect Ottawa to continue to dominate the meeting and despite the Habs likely coming out motivated following another bad loss, there are too many holes in their game defensively and Ottawa can win shootouts. Jake Allen is not a goalie I trust and the market movement towards the Sens is tough to ignore.
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Senators vs Canadiens moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Early bettors piled on the Sens, moving their ML from -125 to as long at -150 after they closed at -180 last week in the 6-2 one-sided win. That game was in Ottawa and the Habs were on the back end of a traveling back-to-back. That game closed with a total of 7 and that’s what bettors are staring at tonight as well.
Montreal is not a team that can just tighten things up as it's been one of the worst defensive teams in hockey, has been outscored substantially in recent meetings, and can’t keep goals off the board in general.
If the home side comes out motivated tonight, I think it will have a better effect on its offense vs. an Ottawa team allowing nearly four goals per game since Christmas, and its likely starter, Joonas Korpisalo, has a .877 SV% over his last nine starts.
Both offenses should find the back of the net and Ottawa gets to face Allen, who is 5-10 straight up with a 3.49 GAA and a .901 SV% over 15 games this year. It's a great offensive matchup for both offenses, especailly with the Habs getting the last change.
Montreal is bringing up tough-guy D-man Arber Xhekaj, so there could be more penalties in this game, as well. Combined, both teams went 0-for-6 with the man advantage last Thursday yet each club ranks in the Bottom 10 in penalty killing since Christmas.
I like a lot of offense in this game and the Over markets for Norris, Jake Sanderson, and Montreal’s Juraj Slafkovsky are all in play tonight. Both teams to score three goals at +125 might be a better angle to hit if the total continues to climb and bettors are staring at 7s.
Senators vs Canadiens betting trend to know
The Senators have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 78 games (+14.35 Units / 16% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Canadiens.
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Senators vs Canadiens game info
| Location: | Bell Centre, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 23, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN 2, TSN 5 |
Senators vs Canadiens latest injuries
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