The Ottawa Senators visit the Tampa Bay Lightning in a massive Atlantic Division tilt at Amalie Arena on Thursday, February 6.
Tampa Bay can tie Ottawa in the standings with a regulation win, but I’m expecting Sens captain Brady Tkachuk to have a say, and he headlines my Senators vs. Lightning predictions and top NHL picks for tonight's divisional showdown.
Senators vs Lightning prediction
My Senators pick
Brady Tkachuk Over 3.5 shots (-135 at Pinnacle)
My Senators analysis
Ottawa Senators captain Brady Tkachuk has been in a bit of a scoring funk with just a pair of goals across his past 11 contests. It definitely hasn’t been because of a lack of effort, though.
Tkachuck has paced the Sens with 50 shots on 75 attempts across the 11-game stretch, and he’s recorded four or more shots in eight of the 11 contests.
This is also a big game for Ottawa, with the Tampa Bay Lightning able to tie the Senators in the Standings with a regulation win. As a result, I’m anticipating Tkachuk to approach 20 minutes of ice time, if not top that tonight. The Sens are also likely to be without a pair of go-to centers with Josh Norris already deemed week-to-week with a mid-body injury, and Shane Pinto’s exit from Tuesday’s contest looking like he’ll need time off, too.
On the surface, Tampa Bay is a run-of-the-mill opponent for allowing shots with a 13th-ranked 50.7 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5 and surrendering a middling 28.4 shots per game. The Lightning do allow the sixth-most shots per game to opposing wingers, though, so Tkachuk is positioned to have oodles of shooting opportunities again tonight.
Finally, I also value Tkachuk in the 99th percentile of forwards in shots on goal while sporting a solid 53.2 CF% at 5-on-5 and leading the Sens in power-play shots and attempts.
Senators vs Lightning odds analysis
There has been a move to the Ottawa side of this moneyline at Pinnacle, with the Sens opening as a +140 road dog and trading at +134 as of Thursday morning. I’m a little surprised with the action because the Senators are going to be in tough with the noted injuries up the middle.
Ottawa has played to the Under in 33 of its last 50 road games (+18.15 Units / 33% ROI) and for the season with an 18-30-6 O/U record. Tampa has also played to the Under in five of its past seven, so I’m not surprised to see a small move to the Under in this game at Pinnacle.
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Senators vs Lightning odds
Senators vs Lightning live odds
Senators vs Lightning opening odds
- Puck line: Ottawa +1.5 (-190) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+162)
- Moneyline: Ottawa +140 | Tampa Bay -159
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 | Under 5.5
Odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Senators vs Lightning trend
Brady Tkachuk has recorded 4+ shots in eight of his past 11 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Lightning.
How to watch Senators vs Lightning
| Location | Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Thursday, 2-6-2025 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TSN5, RDS |
Senators vs Lightning latest injuries
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