The Edmonton Oilers head south to Sunrise to face the Florida Panthers for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final tonight.
Stanley Cup odds have the Cats marked as small betting favorites to win Game 1, and my Oilers vs. Panthers predictions expect Florida to test Stuart Skinner early and often — setting up the Over on his saves total to be the highlight of my NHL picks for Saturday, June 8.
Get ready to eat rubber, buddy.
Oilers vs Panthers prediction
My best bet
Stuart Skinner Over 27.5 saves (+100 at Sports Interaction)
My analysis
The Florida Panthers have 75.1 attempts and 34.5 shots per 60 minutes on home ice across nine postseason games, and those numbers are right in line with their 72.8 and 34.7 marks during the regular season. Florida also averaged 37 shots across three home games against the New York Rangers.
Additionally, the Cats have also been possession hogs with a 56.5 Corsi For percentage and 57.2% shot share at 5-on-5 in their barn during the playoffs, so I’m anticipating Edmonton Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner facing a lot of rubber.
Of course, Skinner has to do his part, and he’s been up to the task after a two-game breather during the Round 2 series against the Canucks. The Edmonton No. 1 has bounced back with a .919 SV% and 1.81 GAA while allowing two goals or fewer in seven of his past eight starts.
I’m also expecting the relentless Panthers to be able to hem the Oilers in their own zone for prolonged stretches and pile up shots in bunches. Edmonton's defense doesn’t drive possession at 5-on-5 as a whole, with Darnell Nurse (45.4%), Brett Kulak (44.8%), and Cody Ceci (43.6%) all on the wrong side of the 5-on-5 CF% line. It’s a similar story for the majority of the Edmonton supporting cast up front, too.
Finally, the Stars opted to hold onto the puck and attempt too many high-risk passes in the offensive zone instead of shooting in Round 3 against the Oilers before finally racking up 73 attempts and 34 shots in Game 6. The Panthers won’t be as generous to the Oil on Saturday night.
Oilers vs Panthers same-game parlay (SGP)
Panthers moneyline
Under 5.5 goals
Under 1.5 first-period goals
Goals have been hard to come by against both the Oilers and Panthers, with them respectively allowing just 2.61 and 2.29 per game in the playoffs. Florida also has surrendered a postseason low 2.17 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
As noted, Skinner is in top form entering the series, and Florida starter Sergei Bobrovsky has also allowed two goals or fewer in 13 of 17 playoff games and enters with a .920 SV% and 1.89 GAA across his past 13 starts.
I also expect these two teams to ease into the series in Game 1 with a focus on defensive detail and rolling all four lines, so again, high-danger scoring chances and goals will be tough to come by in the opening period.
As discussed, the Panthers have been a juggernaut on home ice, and I’m anticipating Florida driving the play and limiting Edmonton’s quality chances in the opener. The Florida forecheck, heavy style of play, possession game, and overall depth will be the difference in Game 1.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Oilers vs Panthers odds
Oilers vs Panthers live odds
Oilers vs Panthers opening odds
- Puck line: Edmonton +1.5 (-225) | Florida (+180)
- Moneyline: Edmonton +115 | Florida -135
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-115) | Under Under 5.5 (-105)
Oilers vs Panthers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There has been limited moneyline movement in this game at the majority of shops, and it’s already a mature market after opening early Monday morning.
- Pinnacle is an exception, with the Panthers opening at -141 and trading at -129 as of Tuesday morning, while Sports Interaction remains at the opening Panthers -135.
- It’s the same story with the total. Pinnacle opened with a 6.0 number Monday morning before quickly moving to 5.5 and taking action on the Over.
- Sports Interaction hasn’t moved from the opening 5.5 Over/Under priced at -115/-105.
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Oilers vs Panthers trend
Florida has averaged 37 shots over its past three home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Panthers.
Oilers vs Panthers game info
| Location: | Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 6-8-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, ABC |
Oilers vs Panthers latest injuries
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