France may have a homecourt advantage, but beating Canada on Tuesday in these Olmypics quarterfinals still served as a notable upset. Now the French are looking to pull that off twice.
These France vs. Germany predictions will not make an exact choice on this semifinal, but they will highlight what should be the determining matchup before the 11:30 a.m. ET tip on Thursday, August 8.
Be sure to also check out our France vs. Germany predictions for full-game best bets.
France vs Germany props for August 8
Prop bet #1: Victor Wembanyama Under 16.5 points
-105 at DraftKings
Two things can both be true. Victor Wembanyama had a terrible shooting game in the quarterfinal win against France on Tuesday, and scoring was never going to be his focus in that game.
Wembanyama shot 2-of-10 from the field, scoring just seven points. His offense was, in a word, bad.
But the French jumped out to a 23-10 lead, nonetheless. Wembanyama is a long way from his ceiling as a complete player, but by simply walking on the court, he deters opponents from attacking the rim. We all know that.
And with France moving away from Rudy Gobert at the moment — be it because of a finger injury, be it because both Canada and Germany present more perimeter worries, or be it because of some combination of those factors — Wembanyama’s defense is needed even more.
He grabbed 12 rebounds on Tuesday. He finished with a plus-8 plus/minus in 27 minutes, despite going 2-of-10 from the field.
In order for Wembanyama to go Over this points total, both those true things would likely need to flip against Germany. Perhaps he will not have another terrible shooting game, but his defense will be the focus regardless. Even if Wembanyama had shot well against the Canadians — let’s say 50% from 2 and 40% from 3, certainly better than good — he would have finished with 13 points.
France’s best path to a medal is Wembanyama’s defense.
Prop bet #2: Victor Wembanyama Under 1.5 threes
+120 at FanDuel
The thing is, Wembanyama is not yet a prolific scorer or shooter. Taking six 3-pointers against Canada made little sense, even if the FIBA 3-point line is closer than the NBA’s.
Wembanyama missing all six was surprising, but not outrageously so. Yes, he was 7-of-15 from deep in these Olympics heading into the game, but a sample size should be noted there, especially given the quality of competition, all due respect to Brazil and Japan.
Gobert playing less — also partly because the FIBA courts are smaller with a closer 3-point line, packing the court to his offensive disadvantage — means Wembanyama has more space inside to use, even if he didn’t use it against Canada for some reason.
That shooting performance should lead to a schematic correction, the French coaching staff encouraging Wembanyama to set up in the high post, where one dribble and his gadgets of arms will be within reach of the rim.
Prop bet #3: Franz Wagner Over 1.5 threes
-115 at DraftKings
This number is too low. This number is foolishly low. This number makes no sense.
Franz Wagner went 2-of-5 from deep in his matchup with France in the first game of group play, taking a third of his shots from deep in part because of the French interior defense.
He has continued chucking from deep all Olympics, averaging 6.3 attempts per game.
They have not all been falling, going only 5-of-25, even worse than his past NBA season average of 28.1% from deep. But Wagner is chucking them.
He chucked them against Wembanyama in the NBA season, too, going 5-of-8 in two games against the Spurs.
If nothing else, this prop should be set with greater juice. Wagner is going to put up shots from deep. Germany needs him to. As soon as he takes a fifth 3-pointer, the odds begin to shift heavily toward him making at least two.
Not intended for use in MA.
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