brewster

It all depends on Payton's game plan. Either Mims or Vale will be Nix's secondary targets after Sutton. One will put up great numbers, one won't. BOLTY

Jeudy vs Surtain should be a good matchup. Jeudy has something to prove as a failed 1st rounder for the Broncos, and Surtain is one of the top CBs in the league.

Van, you are a true pro in the way you manage your budget, the key to successful capping. You are patient and disciplined.  You don't chase by betting more games or increasing your wager size. Instead, you wisely wait out this bad streak by playing fewer games with lower wagers. This streak will end t some point, and because you've played with discipline, you'll still have cash ready when the tide turns in your favor.  Well played, sir.

@C-70Blues

 Are you out of your mind?

Trevor Semien has a lot of experience in the league, and is not a terrible qb.  OTOH Robert Saleh is a terrible coach. Watching him on Hard Knocks I noticed that he used the f-bomb in every other sentence. That is the sign of someone not smart or articulate enough to get their message across using non f-based language. Told me all I needed to know.

If anything, this game proved that these games can’t possibly be scripted. How do you script 2 missed PATS, a missed chip shot by a foot, a weird DPI, and a 12 man penalty. Nobody could think this up and execute it. 
  It’s just entertainment, boys. If you think the world is out to get you by fixing NFL games then maybe you should rethink your priorities.

@KK1  ER doc here. Some nosebleeds are really hard to stop. Just sayin’.

Trap game. Miami caught looking ahead to game at Buffalo next week. Denver has lost both games by a total of 3 points, so they're not as terrible as their record. Denver is the play.

Trap game, if there ever was one. Miami has a statement game coming up at Buffalo next week, and will overlook a Denver team that is better than its record. Denver has lost 2 games by a total of 3 points, so they're not terrible. A few breaks and they're 2-0. Denver is the play.

@NutinButtLove

 100%. Capping these games is a fools errand. Even the best analyses cannot account for penalties (the good calls, the bad calls and the no-calls), turnovers, in-game injuries, eg: to the niners QB, or jaw-dropping mistakes as happened in the Cinci-KC game. These factors played a role in almost every playoff game's outcome this year.

   I've been doing this as a hobby for 60 years now. I go up, I go down. Streaks are real things. Enjoy, but anyone planning on making a living doing sports gambling better have another option. And now with legalization, touts are coming out of the woodwork. Just have fun and be careful.

There's joy in Bronco country. Hope springs eternal for bronco maniacs. But good luck. The Broncos have no #1 draft choice this year, and no 2nd round draft choices for the next 2 years, if I understand the deal correctly. So without much draft capital this indicates that the Penner-Waltons are in this for the long haul. This is a long-term project for the Penner-Walton ownership group, and Payton should firstly lower the short term expectations of the rabid Bronco fanbase. But a great hire, if I live long enough.

@vanzack

 There’s just no way to cap penalties, turnovers, or in-game injuries. That’s what makes this whole football gambling endeavor so fraught. 

Philly ML for me.  If a rookie 7th round draft choice wins the game and takes his team to the SB, I will swallow my loss and tip my hat to him.

So many of these games are decided by events that can't be handicapped such as turnovers, penalties (both called and non-called), and in-game injuries. Even great analysts such as Van can't script these into their decisions. Not getting tempted into playing big on these games is great advice.

Van, you've been smokin all season, and I hesitate to disagree. But I'm struck by the coaching mismatch between Staley of the Chargers and Pederson of the Jags. Staley made the dumbest coaching move this year last week by playing his starters. And that's saying something because I watched Nathaniel Can't Hackett coach the Broncos this year. OTOH Pederson has coached up Lawrence into playing like the top draft choice that he was. I think coaching really matters in the playoffs.

@undermysac

 Maybe. But this certainly has been the most entertaining thread I’ve seen on Covers in years

@CaseyMcGehee

 Hackett's job security is dependent on how the Broncos finish the season. There is no point in firing him now. He will be fired unless he goes at least 5-4, which will be quite a challenge given the upcoming schedule.

@Eddy_Winslow

 According to his own website, LC hasn’t had a winning year since 2018, and is down >100 units in the past 3 years. In addition, he charges to get into his forum, toutlike. Do some research, bud.

Tua’s family should see to it that he never steps on the field again. Concussion injuries are additive, not one-and-done like a broken leg, and he’s had 2 in a week. Tua’s next concussion could put him in a coma and on a respirator for the rest of his life. Scientifically this is an easy call. 

@VicVega91

 Thanks Vic. I did check that out and he hasn’t posted here in 3 years.