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To be fair, I don't think most of your posts would be considered "contributing". It's an open forum so volume doesn't equal quality FYI.
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PhillyBrown | 27 |
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I apologize, I guess when I was reading your original post I glossed over the 20 dollars part. I will disregard your posts in the future
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PhillyBrown | 27 |
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Eh, philly, based on your write up, I don't think you should either
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User592150 | 6 |
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It's preseason so you shouldn't be betting regardless, too many unknowns. But yeah pretty much everything philly said doesn't make any sense. The only one which he kinda touched on but still completely missed is the qb competition. It's not about trying to win the job, it's about a potential starter getting serious minutes. But super bowl hangovers, revenge in preseason and previous records in preseason...umm ok?
Two things: qb competition, so potential starters getting long looks. And layers upon layers of depth for the leagues best defense. That is why the line moved |
PhillyBrown | 27 |
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There a couple reasons why we are viewing this game through a different lens, other than me being a Texans/afc south homer lol.
I'm not as high on Fournette as you are. I would take cook or mixon as being the best back out of this class. As for fit, jags have run mostly a zone scheme in the past and that is not Fournettes strong suit. If they do switch to more of a gap scheme that would better fit him, but it also bodes well for the Texans defense. You are right. The jags defense was way better last year than anyone gave them credit for. Ramsey, smith and jack are the real deal. I don't know if bouye is yet because of scheme. The rest I'm not sold on. Back to your point, neither Watson or savage has to be good for Houston to win. Call it stubbornness, but obrien will repeatedly run Miller into the teeth despite the results. As long as whomever plays qb avoids turnovers, that is good enough. Speaking of which, I don't really care who the qb is, it's automatically plus over 2016 because it can't really get worse. Finally, biggest reason is the game is at nrg. Most teams play better at home, but for whatever reason the gap is even larger with the Texans. So while I understand the jags getting points with an improved defense against a subpar Texans offense, the jags are still the bottom feeder of the afc south. |
porcelainfist | 43 |
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At first I was going to stay away. But Houston/jax game is fairly simple. Watch the first two games of 2016 again. If you are taking the jags, you believe they can score 14-17 against that defense, and that may not be enough. In regards to Fournette, he is a bad matchup for them. Backs who are smaller/shifty with speed out of the backfield can give that defense problems. Of which he is neither. Couple that with the disparity of how the team plays at home, they should be in control from start to finish. Price of admission is paid for with the Hopkins/Ramsey matchup
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porcelainfist | 43 |
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Also, watch the film of the Oakland game again. I know you're big into the names and not what's happening, but Carr playing wouldn't have changed the result. It was that ugly. Also, the constant onslaught that Houston shouldn't even play the game is an advantage
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Vanrush | 40 |
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Watch the film. They ended up as the number one defense in yards allowed, which is not a complete stat. But they did that without watt. They also did it without much help from their offense or special teams. They haven't allowed a 300 yd passer all year. If they win this game, it won't be because of Brady. The pats best hope on offense is their scat backs, white and Lewis, that is where they can find their mismatches. Their defense can get pressure while dropping seven or eight. And other than Denver, they have the best secondary in the league.
But just to be clear your reason for the pats winning are two players who haven't played in 15 weeks and a childish nickname? |
Vanrush | 40 |
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It a week of interesting matchups that one could make a compelling argument for either side. Don't sleep on Houston, they are a team that plays better as the year goes on. They are capable of doing all the things required to slow a tom Brady down. When it comes to that many points in playoffs, it's Houston or a no play
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Vanrush | 40 |
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Two things:
As an afc south guy, at this moment the Titans are the second best team in the division, which I know isn't saying much. But their offensive line is on their way to being the real deal. And while I'm not a fan of Murray, you can't argue with what he has done. On defense, their front seven is live. They will hold up against the run and can get occasional pressure. To truly punish their secondary, you need legit number one wrs, which I haven't seen from the Chargers. The coaching matchup is a draw between McCoy and mularkey. Finally, the Titans are playing with confidence. For the first time in a long while, they believe they can win. I would consider laying a field goal with San Diego, but anymore is too much. On Prescott, I gambled quite a bit on him in college. He had a great defense and his athleticism carried him against inferior opponents. He rarely beat teams with great qb play. That isn't a good sign going into the nfl. He landed in an ideal situation. But at the midway point, never mind the numbers, he doesn't pass the eye test. He hasn't been asked to do much, and hasn't done much. I would be very careful against a well coached hard playing Browns team in search of their first win |
suuma | 187 |
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Also, who has Denver beat? Cincy and Carolina wins aren't as impressive in hindsight.
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ChickMagnut | 31 |
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Also, those two losses were against the probable super bowl matchup. Denver isn't in their class.
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ChickMagnut | 31 |
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I picked it up at +9 yesterday. Houstons offense is deservedly the worst in the nfl. If you are laying the points, you are predicting that Houston gets shut out because Houston's defense is still a top ten unit without JJ watt. 9 points is just too much with two good defenses and two not so good offenses
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ChickMagnut | 31 |
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If you are betting the Broncos, you want Osweiler to make it the entire game. You don't want savage coming off the bench
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rjk281 | 15 |
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Quote Originally Posted by UnderlinePicks: Bills line moved to +2.Eagles is a square play, I am aware of that but Detroit has been terrible so far, backed them twice this season and did anything they could to lose. That statement is contradictory. Eagles are a square play but the lions are terrible and you've lost money on them? I don't understand labeling picks as square on this forum. It's almost as if people would rather be contrarian than win money |
UnderlinePicks | 20 |
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In Vegas at the moment, line is -3 most places but no juice
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suuma | 108 |
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Look at it this way, it's free money with the books overreacting in regards to the lines
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undermysac | 11 |
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Do you guys even watch the games before you wager?
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TheFootball77 | 4 |
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In regards to Texans/pats, everything says take the patriots. As a Texans fan, i know our history against the pats better than anybody and it isn't good. Thankfully this isn't the lettermans jackets debacle of 2011.
The one caveat I will give for those taking the pats. You are looking at a historically dominant defense. There are a few chinks in the armor, namely running the ball between the tackles and covering dominant te's(although bouye locked Kelce). But the Texans are deep in the secondary, and what other defense boasts three elite pass rushers? The biggest advantage their defense has is they drop 7 or 8 and still get pressure. |
suuma | 105 |
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its amazing a thread with so little information has gotten so many responses. Why not post a picture of a dart board with this weeks picks?
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MRxKrazz | 86 |
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