TheBetProfessor

Titans @ Browns(+6, 45)

I know it sounds like a broken record, but I am on the Browns here. Cleveland continues to disappoint in the market but as long as they are only getting 2 out of 10 tickets written on average, books will continue to stretch the margin and make players who are auto fading the Browns pay a beyond premium price. That said, the Titans have hardly been a market juggernaut as they too have been underperformers. Here is the key to this game: The Browns Rush Defense against the Titans Rush Offense. The Browns only allow 3 yards per rush attempt. If the Titans cannot run the ball, the Browns will be getting their first victory of the year. Speaking of which, I guarantee the Browns will be giving maximum effort here. They want to get that first win. I am on Cleveland plus the points and took a tiny slice of that ML as well.

Jaguars @ Colts(+3, 43.5)

I am on the Jaguars and laid the 3. While I don’t ever like being on short road favorites, I believe the value is on the Jags and here is why. First off, I made the number 6 and that is based on a variety of forecasting models and tweaking those numbers by what my eyes see, whether it be reading and getting information or watching All 22s. This Jaguar team that appeared to struggle last season, had a very good adjusted Pythag and those are the types of teams you want to back the following season. Secondly, the Jaguars have outperformed the market prices thus far this season coming in at +59. While I usually will fade those teams with high plus numbers, I have to back them here because the books have not had to adjust for the Jaguars yet, reason being, on average, the Jags are getting just 30% of tickets each game. The Colts on the other hand cannot be trusted. These second half fades are becoming legendary. From an efficiency standpoint and Statistical Boxscore standpoint, this game to me is not close on paper.

Saints @ Packers(+4, 47.5)

I am on Packers ML and this will be my largest position of the day. I love backing teams the week following an injury to a superstar and lets face it, the world knows  that Green Bay is without Aaron Rodgers and those same people are saying Brett Who? Brett Hundley? Listen, Hundley has been with the Packers now for 3 years. He has had a whole week of practice and now gets a chance to showcase every thing he has learned from the 1^st ballot hall of famer. Every single player on the Packers will be stepping up their game a couple of notches to account for Rodgers loss. The Saints got out to a huge lead last weekend and had to hold on to survive in beating the Lions 52-38. By the way, the stat score of that game was just 23-18 Saints and not this huge score that the public bettors may have perceived. Everyone has written the Packers off and that may very well be a likely scenario…..but I refuse to go against the Packers in this spot. EXTREMELY HEAVY Packers ML.

That is it for me this weekend. Normally, I have several positions but for this week, to me, it is just a bad board. Good luck!

Rams @ Jaguars(-2.5, 42)

I had to really adjust my raw numbers on this game. Last week in the Jags big win at Pittsburgh, Bortles threw one pass in the second half. One. Right now, the Jaguars are in a great comfort zone as far their ground game goes and they continue to give Fournette all the carries he can handle. They are averaging 5 yards per rush attempt. By contrast, they also give up 5.4 yards per rush which makes it highly likely that the Rams utilize Gurley more than they have in previous games. Knowing this, I moved my raw total of 48 all the way down to 42 and that is exactly where this line sits. When books opened 1^st half totals and had this 21.5, I had to grab Under and again that is largely based on believing that BOTH teams will attempt to run the ball in the 1^st half, see the results, then make adjustments at half. As for the side, I love the way the Jags are playing right now. They have a leash on Bortles and unlike last season when he would give games away, this season they are playing within themselves. I laid 1.5 with a small position.

Bucs @ Cardinals(1, 45.5)

I really want to back Tampa here but I just cannot trust them on the road as bad as the Cardinals are. My line and total are pretty much in sync with the books here. Pass.

Steelers @ Chiefs(-4, 47)

With the Steelers getting blown out last week at home by Jacksonville and KC getting yet another cover, ALL of the value is on the Steelers here. I mentioned last week when I took a position on KC that I wasn’t inclined to step in front of their freight train. But this week is a different story. Their offense will meet their match against this Steeler Defense which is ranked 5^th in the NFL in defensive efficiency. KC is actually -5.5 according to my models but often times, situations result in a significant adjustment which is what happened here. This Steelers offense is a sleeping giant and they will wake up at some point. I am banking on it being this week. Steelers ML HEAVY will be my largest position of the weekend.

Chargers @ Raiders(OFF)

Pass

Giants @ Broncos(-11.5, 38.5)

I LOVE the Giants here. First off, I usually ALWAYS auto lay on a double digit dog with the total set at 42 or lower. But that’s not the only thing. There is no way that the Broncos should be double digit favorites here even with all of the injuries the Giants have endured. No Beckham, no Marshall, no Shepard. They are missing their Center Richburg as well. I mention time and time again how books always overreact to injuries because they know that 99% of bettors overreact to injuries and that simple thing creates value in the market. I could care less that the Giants are 0-5. I bet numbers not teams. Everyone and their families here will be laying the number and backing the Broncos here. Not me…..give me Giants and all those points all day long because I am getting a ton of +EV.

Rams @ Jaguars(-2.5, 42)

I had to really adjust my raw numbers on this game. Last week in the Jags big win at Pittsburgh, Bortles threw one pass in the second half. One. Right now, the Jaguars are in a great comfort zone as far their ground game goes and they continue to give Fournette all the carries he can handle. They are averaging 5 yards per rush attempt. By contrast, they also give up 5.4 yards per rush which makes it highly likely that the Rams utilize Gurley more than they have in previous games. Knowing this, I moved my raw total of 48 all the way down to 42 and that is exactly where this line sits. When books opened 1^st half totals and had this 21.5, I had to grab Under and again that is largely based on believing that BOTH teams will attempt to run the ball in the 1^st half, see the results, then make adjustments at half. As for the side, I love the way the Jags are playing right now. They have a leash on Bortles and unlike last season when he would give games away, this season they are playing within themselves. I laid 1.5 with a small position.

Bucs @ Cardinals(1, 45.5)

I really want to back Tampa here but I just cannot trust them on the road as bad as the Cardinals are. My line and total are pretty much in sync with the books here. Pass.

Steelers @ Chiefs(-4, 47)

With the Steelers getting blown out last week at home by Jacksonville and KC getting yet another cover, ALL of the value is on the Steelers here. I mentioned last week when I took a position on KC that I wasn’t inclined to step in front of their freight train. But this week is a different story. Their offense will meet their match against this Steeler Defense which is ranked 5^th in the NFL in defensive efficiency. KC is actually -5.5 according to my models but often times, situations result in a significant adjustment which is what happened here. This Steelers offense is a sleeping giant and they will wake up at some point. I am banking on it being this week. Steelers ML HEAVY will be my largest position of the weekend.

Chargers @ Raiders(OFF)

Pass

Giants @ Broncos(-11.5, 38.5)

I LOVE the Giants here. First off, I usually ALWAYS auto lay on a double digit dog with the total set at 42 or lower. But that’s not the only thing. There is no way that the Broncos should be double digit favorites here even with all of the injuries the Giants have endured. No Beckham, no Marshall, no Shepard. They are missing their Center Richburg as well. I mention time and time again how books always overreact to injuries because they know that 99% of bettors overreact to injuries and that simple thing creates value in the market. I could care less that the Giants are 0-5. I bet numbers not teams. Everyone and their families here will be laying the number and backing the Broncos here. Not me…..give me Giants and all those points all day long because I am getting a ton of +EV.

Browns @ Texans(-10. 46.5)

I grabbed Browns +10 with a fairly healthy position.  The Browns are -28 in overall market performance while the Texans come in at +30. The Browns will also be handing over the QB reigns to Kevin Hogan as Kizer just couldn’t handle that big step rookie QBs need to make going from college to pro. That’s one thing to like. Another is the Browns surprisingly high ranking #3 in Defensive Rushing Efficiency. Because of that, it will likely force DeShaun Watson to throw it more than he would like and although the Browns secondary is horrendous, are we totally sold yet on Watson? He has basically had one good game and that is it. To make matters worse for the Texans, they have a ton of players banged up including CBs Joseph, Jackson, and Johnson. They will be without JJ Watt and Whit Mercilus as well. My top 3 models all have the Browns @ +6.5 or better and I actually made the number Browns +6. The Browns are the right side here and this number will head south. Nothing on the total.

Patriots @ Jets(+9.5, 47.5)

Who would have thought the Jets would be tied with the Pats heading into this week 6 game? Certainly not the majority. Once again, the line is terribly inflated and books continue to make loyal Patriot backers pay a beyond premium price. Every single model I have spits out Jets as the right side here and I definitely agree. As long as books keep getting 8 out of every 10 tickets on Pats, the price will be enormous. Give me a regular position on the Jets and all of those points.

Dolphins @ Falcons(-13, 46)

Another game where the line is terribly inflated. Because of the Falcons overperformance in the market last season, one has to look at backing their opposition in every single game. And making matters better for investors was that the Dolphins were able to rebound from all of that early travel and take out the Titans at home last weekend.  I made the number here Dolphins +7 giving me tons of line value. And here is another little tidbit: The Falcons travel to Foxboro next week for a rematch with the Patriots which makes this a great spot for the Dolphins. Dolphins HEAVY.

Lions @ Saints(-4, 50)

Nothing here. Line and total make sense with Stafford questionable.

Packers @ Vikings(3, 45)

I took a position on the Vikings here at +3. Even though this is a division rivalry game, it has to be tough on the Pack after their big win in Dallas last weekend. Although Bradford won’t play, Keenum has actually played well in his absence. The big problem for the Vikings and it definitely is concerning is that WR Diggs has been ruled out, a huge break for the Packers. So the Vikings are without Bradford, Diggs, and Cook, their 3 main offensive weapons. That said, I still made this line a pick and knowing that the Packers will definitely be the public darling here, the Vikings at home make total sense to me.

Bears @ Ravens(-6.5, 39.5)

Pass on side and total.

49ers @ Redskins(-11, 46.5)

Once again, we have a game with a double digit spread with the home favorite in a look ahead spot. Not sure how excited the Skins will be facing the 49ers when they have a big trip to Philly next weekend. I took a small position on the Niners here +11.

NFL Week 5 Sunday Outlook(Late Games)

Seahawks @ Rams(-1.5, 46)

Nothing on the Side here but this will most likely be the largest position I have ever taken on a Total in recent memory. I am Real Heavy here on OVER 46. I made this Total 52 and its actually quite simple as to why: The Yards Per Play Averages. The Rams are gaining on average 6.4 Yards Per Play and giving up 5.7 Yards Per Play. The Hawks are gaining 5.5 Yards Per Play and giving up 5.2. This Total will move North.

Ravens @ Raiders(-2.5, 39)

Again, nothing on the side. But I am buying Under 39. I made this total 40 with Derek Carr but without him, there is a huge drop off to EJ Manuel and to me warrants around a 4 point adjustment. I also really like a high ranking defensive efficiency team(Ravens 2^nd) against a backup QB. Regular Position UNDER 39.

Packers @ Cowboys(-2.5, 53)

While recreational players will be lining up to wager on the so called “Marquee Game”, I am sitting it out. Way too many question marks on both sides for me to get involved. You have Dallas in full fledged regression mode after outperforming the market last season against a Green Bay team whose home/road dichotomy is on opposite ends of the spectrum. Pass.

Chiefs @ Texans(1, 40.5)

Very hard to step in front of the KC freight train and I am not going to. I took a position on the Chiefs at Pick. I think the Chiefs should be FG favorites here based on the Yards Per Play numbers and also offensive and defensive efficiency. I am sure I will get some push back and I am certain there will be groups and other pros coming in on the Texans here. But I must trust my numbers at all times and to me, there is really nothing to adjust on KC. Their numbers dictate exactly who they are. Although that Texans score from last week showed  a 57-14 blowout over the Titans, the stat score in that game was just 26-19 and I highly doubt that KC is going to hand over the ball to the Texans 4 times like the Titans did. The one thing about Alex Smith is he always plays within himself and really never hurts his team from a turnover standpoint.  The Texans have undoubtedly found a QB in DeShaun Watson and he had a monster game last weekend. However, the more and more Watson plays, the more film teams can gather on him. In other words, the sledding will become tougher and I fully expect him to regress, as rookies do, off big performances like the one he had last week. Nothing on the Total.

NFL Week 5 Sunday Outlook(Early Games)

Chargers @ Giants (-3, 45)

After 4 weeks, I am really not quite sure what to make of these teams. My numbers and models point to the Chargers but you when you do the eye test and weigh the subjective factors, how many times do you go to the well with a Charger team who has underperformed the market pricing by 20.5 points thus far. The Giants are no better as they have underperformed by 24.5 points thus far. Both teams are 0-4 but when you bring adjusted Pythag to the equation, the Chargers numbers indicate they are on their way to a 7-9 season while the Giants are playing to the tune of 4-12. I suppose in the end I will take a small position and make a pure numbers grab on Chargers +3.5 but again, that will be an extremely small position.

Bills @ Bengals(-3.5, 39.5)

Based on forecasting models, the Bills would be an easy choice. These past couple of weeks they handled the Broncos at home and then went into Atlanta and took out the Falcons outright. They have outperformed the market by a total of 23 points thus far. That is all good news. Now the negatives. Thru all of their success, the Bills who are 3-1, have an adjusted season Pythag of only 7-9. That means they are essentially living off turnovers. Factoring in that turnovers are basically random, at what point will the tide turn? You are also asking the Bills to play yet another good game for the third time in a row with back to back road games before their Bye next week. On the flip side, you have the Bengals who are 1-3, but have an adjusted season Pythag of 9-7 which is the opposite end of the spectrum. What you have here is Regression indicators going opposite directions. Professional money hit the Bengals hard at the sendout and at some books the number flew thru the 3. All of this said, I cannot support the Bengals and lay a 3 hooked as the value has been fully extracted. So it now becomes a question of whether to back the Bills at a value price. Hmmm….another small position numbers grab on Bills +3.5. As for the total, I cannot ignore the Bills number one ranking in defensive efficiency. I had to make a significant subjective factor adjustment and made the total 40 up from my raw number of 36.5. Both of these teams have played to Unders when it comes to market performance. The Bills are -45 overall in totals performance while the Bengals come in at -37.5. Over is the right side I think, but I wont be invested.

Jets @ Browns(Pick, 39.5)

Next….

Jaguars @ Steelers(-8, 42.5)

Steeler Backers will be asked to pay a premium price here and those that know me know I don’t pay premium prices. On average, the Steelers have garnered 78% of public bets thru 4 weeks. The Jaguars have been backed only 38% on average. When you are presented with figures like that, it is easy to see that this line is shaded heavy towards the Steelers. I think the Jaguars keep this within the number. The Jaguars adjusted Pythag for the season is 9-7. The Steelers adjusted Pythag is 10-6 so it is not like these teams have swayed much from what the numbers indicate. Plus, we all know the Steelers don’t get too excited to play teams they consider to be lesser caliber opponents and they are off an impressive road win over the arch rival Ravens. Here is the one thing that causes me concern: The Jaguars are giving up 5.7 yards per rush attempt and that is not a good number when going up against the best RB in the league in LeVeon Bell. Also, at some point, this Steeler offense is going to wake up. They have too much talent not to. But when its all said and done, the Jags are still the better “stock” here. Regular Position on the Jags at +8.5.

Titans @ Dolphins(3, 43.5)

This will be the Dolphins first true home game as they have traveled more than any other team so far. They are off a miserable performance in London making that two very bad games in a row after beating the Chargers in LA. The Titans roll into South Beach without Marcus Mariota and will have journeyman Matt Cassel at the controls. The Dolphins were listed at -3 chalk back in the summer and now they are +3 dogs and keep in mind that summer line was made assuming Marcus Mariota would be playing in this game.  The problem is that Mariota had been awful prior to his injury and I am not so sure there should be a major adjustment going from Mariota to Cassel. That said, the Fish have been an absolute mess these past two weeks. Was it the travel? Definitely could make an argument for it. But they got other problems as well mainly giving up 5.7 yards per play. I use five models, just added one based on efficiency. From an efficiency standpoint, the Titans should be 4.5 chalk. From a Stat Score Regression Model, the Titans are a whopping 7 point favorite and yes this includes the drubbling the Titans took in Houston last weekend. I’m sorry I cannot back the Dolphins here. In as much as I hate taking Road Chalk, I am on Titans here…..HEAVY.

49ers @ Colts(-1.5, 44.5)

Next…..

Cardinals @ Eagles(-6.5, 45)

I believe this game is priced accordingly side and total. The Cards have underperformed in the market but I believe that was warranted to the loss of David Johnson who was worth a lot more than books gave him credit for. I suppose some pro money will come in on Cards at 7, but I wont be a player.

Panthers @ Lions(-2.5, 42.5)

The Carolina team that I expected to make a splash this season finally showed up in Foxboro last weekend and took out the Patriots outright. And although I do not particularly like backing teams on the road off a big road win, I am heavy here on the Panthers ML. Sure, the Lions are 3-1. To some, they are playing well. But I am not buying it. Their Adjusted Pythag for this season only paints them as a 500 team while the Panthers Adjusted Pythag shows a 10-6 record. The Panthers also rank 8^th in Big Play Differential while the Lions are a -4 and rank 23^rd. My main model and best model which deals with Box Score Regression, spits out Panthers as a -4 favorite here and I will not ignore that.  Again, Panthers ML Heavy.

NFL Week 5 Sunday Outlook(Early Games)

Chargers @ Giants (-3, 45)

After 4 weeks, I am really not quite sure what to make of these teams. My numbers and models point to the Chargers but you when you do the eye test and weigh the subjective factors, how many times do you go to the well with a Charger team who has underperformed the market pricing by 20.5 points thus far. The Giants are no better as they have underperformed by 24.5 points thus far. Both teams are 0-4 but when you bring adjusted Pythag to the equation, the Chargers numbers indicate they are on their way to a 7-9 season while the Giants are playing to the tune of 4-12. I suppose in the end I will take a small position and make a pure numbers grab on Chargers +3.5 but again, that will be an extremely small position.

Bills @ Bengals(-3.5, 39.5)

Based on forecasting models, the Bills would be an easy choice. These past couple of weeks they handled the Broncos at home and then went into Atlanta and took out the Falcons outright. They have outperformed the market by a total of 23 points thus far. That is all good news. Now the negatives. Thru all of their success, the Bills who are 3-1, have an adjusted season Pythag of only 7-9. That means they are essentially living off turnovers. Factoring in that turnovers are basically random, at what point will the tide turn? You are also asking the Bills to play yet another good game for the third time in a row with back to back road games before their Bye next week. On the flip side, you have the Bengals who are 1-3, but have an adjusted season Pythag of 9-7 which is the opposite end of the spectrum. What you have here is Regression indicators going opposite directions. Professional money hit the Bengals hard at the sendout and at some books the number flew thru the 3. All of this said, I cannot support the Bengals and lay a 3 hooked as the value has been fully extracted. So it now becomes a question of whether to back the Bills at a value price. Hmmm….another small position numbers grab on Bills +3.5. As for the total, I cannot ignore the Bills number one ranking in defensive efficiency. I had to make a significant subjective factor adjustment and made the total 40 up from my raw number of 36.5. Both of these teams have played to Unders when it comes to market performance. The Bills are -45 overall in totals performance while the Bengals come in at -37.5. Over is the right side I think, but I wont be invested.

Jets @ Browns(Pick, 39.5)

Next….

Jaguars @ Steelers(-8, 42.5)

Steeler Backers will be asked to pay a premium price here and those that know me know I don’t pay premium prices. On average, the Steelers have garnered 78% of public bets thru 4 weeks. The Jaguars have been backed only 38% on average. When you are presented with figures like that, it is easy to see that this line is shaded heavy towards the Steelers. I think the Jaguars keep this within the number. The Jaguars adjusted Pythag for the season is 9-7. The Steelers adjusted Pythag is 10-6 so it is not like these teams have swayed much from what the numbers indicate. Plus, we all know the Steelers don’t get too excited to play teams they consider to be lesser caliber opponents and they are off an impressive road win over the arch rival Ravens. Here is the one thing that causes me concern: The Jaguars are giving up 5.7 yards per rush attempt and that is not a good number when going up against the best RB in the league in LeVeon Bell. Also, at some point, this Steeler offense is going to wake up. They have too much talent not to. But when its all said and done, the Jags are still the better “stock” here. Regular Position on the Jags at +8.5.

Titans @ Dolphins(3, 43.5)

This will be the Dolphins first true home game as they have traveled more than any other team so far. They are off a miserable performance in London making that two very bad games in a row after beating the Chargers in LA. The Titans roll into South Beach without Marcus Mariota and will have journeyman Matt Cassel at the controls. The Dolphins were listed at -3 chalk back in the summer and now they are +3 dogs and keep in mind that summer line was made assuming Marcus Mariota would be playing in this game.  The problem is that Mariota had been awful prior to his injury and I am not so sure there should be a major adjustment going from Mariota to Cassel. That said, the Fish have been an absolute mess these past two weeks. Was it the travel? Definitely could make an argument for it. But they got other problems as well mainly giving up 5.7 yards per play. I use five models, just added one based on efficiency. From an efficiency standpoint, the Titans should be 4.5 chalk. From a Stat Score Regression Model, the Titans are a whopping 7 point favorite and yes this includes the drubbling the Titans took in Houston last weekend. I’m sorry I cannot back the Dolphins here. In as much as I hate taking Road Chalk, I am on Titans here…..HEAVY.

49ers @ Colts(-1.5, 44.5)

Next…..

Cardinals @ Eagles(-6.5, 45)

I believe this game is priced accordingly side and total. The Cards have underperformed in the market but I believe that was warranted to the loss of David Johnson who was worth a lot more than books gave him credit for. I suppose some pro money will come in on Cards at 7, but I wont be a player.

Panthers @ Lions(-2.5, 42.5)

The Carolina team that I expected to make a splash this season finally showed up in Foxboro last weekend and took out the Patriots outright. And although I do not particularly like backing teams on the road off a big road win, I am heavy here on the Panthers ML. Sure, the Lions are 3-1. To some, they are playing well. But I am not buying it. Their Adjusted Pythag for this season only paints them as a 500 team while the Panthers Adjusted Pythag shows a 10-6 record. The Panthers also rank 8^th in Big Play Differential while the Lions are a -4 and rank 23^rd. My main model and best model which deals with Box Score Regression, spits out Panthers as a -4 favorite here and I will not ignore that.  Again, Panthers ML Heavy.

Giants @ Bucs (-3, 44.5)

The Bucs D is beat up on the injury front and I will be shocked if the Giants Offense doesn’t get well in this game. Sure, they have problems with that horrific offensive line but I just can’t see Tampa causing any type of disruption. Plus, the Bucs offense has been anything but stellar early on. I took a short position on Gmen +3.

Eagles @ Chargers (-2.5, 48)

When you have been in this racket for a long time, as I have, you learn real quick that it is about betting numbers and not teams. So, yes, I will open my wallet up again and back the Bolts.  The Eagles are banged up defensively and I would be shocked if Philip Rivers doesn’t have a big game here. I also see TE Hunter Henry having a big game as well.

49ers @ Cardinals( -6.5, 44.5)

I got both sides here. Bought 49ers at +7.5 and Cards -6.5. Low risk middle shot.

Colts @ Seahawks (-13, 41.5)

90% of the time, I would lay it on the double digit dog here with the low total but I just cannot back the Colts. Injuries everywhere. Seattle is too good not to bust out soon and I fear it may happen in this spot. I will pass on side and total.

NFL Sunday Outlook (Early Games)

Saints vs. Dolphins (3, 50.5) ** Game In London **

Value created here based on results from last weekend. The Fins were a complete dud in their loss to the Jets while the Saints went into Charlotte and dominated Carolina. This game will be across the water but to me, I don’t think it will be advantageous or detrimental to either team. I think the number is off here and I took a pretty heavy position with the Fins +3 and also a little money line as well. I would have loved to see +3.5 but I really do not see that coming despite the Saints being the public darlings. I at least wanted to grab 3 just in case the guys in the suits and sunglasses gobbled it up and left some of us in no mans land staring at a 2.5. I have nothing on the total here.

Panthers @ Patriots (-9, 49.5)

For a team that I thought would contend in the AFC South, the Panthers have been anything but impressive. They were awful and got dominated by the Saints at home last week and after viewing the All 22s, I am not convinced this team is capable of making the drastic improvement they would need to make to win in Foxboro. A big part of me would love to join the Patriots party here but unlike others, I refuse to pay top premium prices when it comes to the Patriots. Pass on side and total.

Rams @ Cowboys (-6, 48)

I don’t want any part of the side here but a big part of me wants to grab some under on the total. My concern is that the Cowboys are beat up defensively and with the Rams getting Todd Gurley more involved, it has basically made Jared Goff a better QB. I made the total 44 so….hmmm….most likely wait to game time and see if this thing gets to 49. If it does, I will buy a little bit. If not, I will watch.

Lions @ Vikings (-1.5, 42.5)

I like the Vikings here and took a large position. While backing a team with Case Keenum at the controls is not always a wise one, I thought he played well last week and looked pretty comfortable. I really don’t think Keenum will have to do too much here and I fully expect this Vikings D to give the Lions some problems. I made the number Vikings -4 and when my number is on the other side of the 3, I plunge. Nothing on the total.

Titans @ Texans (2.5, 43.5)

Tough one here but Im gonna side with the home dog and take the ML. I made Texans a short favorite here. There is just something about this Titans team that rubs me the wrong way. And let’s face it, Mariota has been less than stellar thus far with that 86 Passer rating.  Furthermore, this line was Texans -3 in the summer….what really changed? Why the 5.5 point swing?

Jaguars @ Jets (3, 38)

Pass. I think this game is priced accordingly.

Bengals @ Browns (3, 41.5)

Pass. I think this game is priced accordingly.

Steelers @ Ravens (3, 42)

My largest position of the weekend will be on the Ravens +3 and also took a ML position. The wrong team is favored here. The Steelers offense, for whatever reason, has been sputtering and I highly doubt they get things going against this Ravens D, whom I feel is one of the top 3 in the NFL. Both teams got caught looking ahead last weekend. Tempo will be important here and normally the home team controls tempo when matched against an equal opponent. Under got hit at the sendout but now it is creeping back up. May get involved at 44.5 or better.

Bills @ Falcons (-8, 48.5)

Took a position on the Bills here. I mentioned before several times how teams will digress off their previous season’s value number and to me, the Birds are overpriced big time here. I made the number -4.5, so for my number to be on the other side of the 7….well….I fire away. Nothing on the total.

NFL Week Three Sunday Preview(Late Games)

Seahawks @ Titans (-3, 42)

There is no doubt Seattle has problems. That offensive line reminds me of the Giants. They just cant do anything offensively. But I think this is a spot to grab the Hawks. From a defensive standpoint, I believe they will give the Titans problems.  Seattle opened in the summer -2 and now we have a 5 point adjustment? I don’t think it is warranted. Give me some Hawks +3.

Chiefs @ Chargers (+3, 47.5)

This will be my second largest position of the weekend and it will be with the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs have been very impressive but have the Chargers been that bad? They went to the wire with a Broncos team that blew out Dallas. And although they lost a home heart breaker to the Dolphins, the fact is they WON THE STAT SCORE 29-21. I liked the Chargers at the beginning of the season and I am not ready to waiver on that. Oh, and I will take some ML too please.

Bengals @ Packers (-7.5, 46.5)

Got nothing here. There is no doubt the Bengals are sleeping and I am not expecting them to wake anytime soon. That offensive line is really bad. On the other side of the ledger, the Falcons made the Packers look very ordinary. Or very bad. All said, the line is about right. I adjusted from 3 to 5 but I can see how it could be more.

Raiders @ Redskins (+3, 54)

Love the Redskins here and the Over. Tough spot for the Raiders. They are making their second trip across the country and they have a date at Denver next weekend. After an opening week loss to Philly, the Skins went to LA and beat the Rams although they did lose the Stat Score. Took a pretty strong position here on the Skins and the Over as I fully expect a track meet in what should be a crazy Sunday night in DC.

NFL Week Three Sunday Preview (Early Games)

Before diving into the preview for this Sunday, I think it is very important that you realize there is still limited data. Since I’ve been in this racket for a long time, I have developed that ability to pretty much know when teams are undervalued or overvalued without the math. A lot of positions taken during these early weeks are situational and based on what the public eyes see and remember. The betting board for this week looks very appetizing to say the least and I will be taking a high volume of positions. Not so much though with totals.

Ravens vs. Jaguars (+4, 39.5) ** Game will be played in London

Tough spot for the Crows here with the almighty Pittsburgh Steelers on deck next week. The Ravens opened up with two straight convincing wins over divisional foes at Cincy and at home against the Browns. With the jags melting down at home last week against the Titans, value presents itself here. Plus, remember, this is the Crows first trip across the water and it will mark the 5^th time Jacksonville has made this trip. I made the number here a Pick so a +4 buy was an easy one to make.

Browns @ Colts (+1.5, 42.5)

Just a really really hard game to dissect. I suppose you would have to look at the Colts because lets face it, should the Browns be road chalk against anyone? Leaned Colts initially, but will stay away.

Steelers @ Bears (+7.5, 44)

As I have said before many upon many upon many of times, the Steelers never perform well in games they should handle easily. And with Division Rival Baltimore on deck, the easy choice here is the Bears and all of those points. In fact, I would not be entirely shocked if the Bears won outright. Bought +7.5 and a tiny bit of ML.

Dolphins @ Jets (+6, 43)

The perfect scenario happened last week with the Dolphins winning in LA over the Chargers and the Jets getting bombed in Oakland. Situations like this make bookies inflate lines and there is no doubt this one is inflated. Gimme a little bit of Jets +6.

Broncos @ Bills (+3, 40)

This one is simple. The Broncos are at the top of the heap from an overvalued standpoint after blowing out the Cowboys last weekend. Ticket writers will be smiling when everyone and their brother run to the window buying Broncos. I ran to the window too when I saw that the Broncs are getting a visit from Division Rival Oakland next week. Give me Bills ML as my top position of the weekend.

Texans @ Patriots (-14, 44)

Wont be involved too much in this one. I did buy Texans in an extremely small position but it was a pure numbers grab at +14.5.

Saints @ Panthers (-6, 46.5)

This line opened Carolina -3 in the summer and now sits at -6. I feel this number is too high. Cam still doesn’t seem right and not having Greg Olsen is a big problem. The Saints defense is a wreck but they should be able to do some things offensively to keep this one inside the number. Took a position at +6.

Buccaneers @ Vikings (+2.5, 39)

Vikings will once again be without QB Sam Bradford which is why they find themselves in a home dog role here. My initial total here was 43 with Bradford and after watching the All 22s, I am conviced Bradford is worth around 7 when it comes to the total. I bought Under 39 with pocket change.

Falcons @ Lions (+3, 51)

After a shaky opening week win over the Bears, the Falcons blew out the Packers yet again last weekend in the brand new stadium. I really like how the Lions are playing but make no mistake they should be a dog here. Don’t really have a strong position here but +3.5 might get me to the window.

Giants @ Eagles (-6, 43)

I want to back the Giants so bad here. I really do. But after watching that offensive performance against the Lions, I just have to dig a little more into it. I did buy Under 21.5 first half because the Giants just cannot score TD’s. The Eagles have injury dots all over the secondary but I just can’t see Eli exploiting it.  

Dolphins @ Chargers (-3.5, 45.5)

First off, there is no travel issue here as the Dolphins have been staying on the west coast for the past 10 days or so. Much will be said as to who has an advantage whether it be the Fish, who have been given a lot of extra time to prepare, or the Chargers, who now have a game under their belts. In 2016, both of these teams played pretty close to the market numbers so I don’t see any real advantages from that standpoint. I made the line Chargers -3 and soft juice, so there is some value on the visitors. Last week, I took some Chargers +3.5s and beat the market although I also had a little taste of the ML as well for a minor loss. I will take a small position on Dolphins. As for the total, I do think there will be some points scored but I doubt I get involved. I made the number 48 so not really enough value to get me to the window.

Jets @ Raiders (-13, 43.5)

I took some Jets early at +13.5, but it was more of a numbers grab and not a very big position by any means. The Jets underperformed in the market by 101 points in 2016 so clearly they are the side if any is to be taken. That said, they are not a very good football team. The Raiders took care of business in week one with a road win and cover in Tennessee, and I can’t help but think this shaded the line a few points. I am never interested in paying premium prices and that is exactly what you will be betting into should you decide to invest in the Raiders here. Nothing on the total.

Redskins @ Rams (-3, 46)

This line opened Rams -3 and has been going back and forth between -2.5 and -3. There is really no resistance on the 3 and to be honest, I anticipated that. Recreational players always react to what they see last and that has definitely opened up some value on the Skins. I have already taken some Redskins +3s and also took some ML as well. Nothing on the total.

Cowboys @ Broncos (+2, 42)

As it sits right now, there is really not enough value to step to the window in regards to the side and total. If this line would find its way to 3, then I might reopen the notebook and take a stronger look at the Broncos.

49ers @ Seahawks (-14, 42)

I took a very small position on 49ers here just because of the high spread number and the low total. For me, it is basically an automatic lay on any dog with a spread of 13 or more coupled with a total of 42 or less.

Packers @ Falcons (-3, 54)

I am on the Falcons . I always look back to recent meetings and see what the lines were to spot any adjustments and if there were adjustments, you must ask if they are warranted. When these two teams met in the playoffs last year, the line was Falcons -6. Now they are only laying 3. Why? What happened in the off season to warrant a FG adjustment? I suppose a case can be made that the Falcons have two new coordinators on both sides of the ball. But is that worth 3 points? And don’t forget, the Falcons dominated the Packers in that playoff game and it was over at halftime. Yes, Green Bay is in a double revenge situation losing both games to the dirty birds in 2016. Also, this will be the first game in the Falcons brand new stadium which has to be worth something to the Falcons side. The one thing that does concern me is that Atlanta overperformed in the market in a big, big way in 2016 and it was the primary reason I took a major position on the Bears last weekend. The Falcons should have lost that game. And recreational players definitely saw that lackluster performance. They also saw a great performance by Green Bay in defeating the Seahawks at Lambeau. But all in all, when you put everything together, it spells Falcons. I made the number -5.5 so I do believe I am getting a great price in backing the Birds. As for the total, I am inclined to look at the Over but 54 isn’t a number that will get me to the window. 53 or lower would get my interest.