Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
---|---|---|---|---|
@insatiable Thanks bud and back at ya. @Fuse Thanks and back at ya bud |
TheBuddah | 4 |
|
|
I'm 1-3 on my Nfl posted playoff picks so may want to fade:) Let's look at some numbers:
45.5 LAR 24 10 22 20 7 5 -4.5 Phil 2 29 10 1 4 30
Phil opened at 4.5, currently around 6.5 -7. Phil is better in Off rushing 2 vs 24; Rushing def 10 vs 22; passing def 1 vs 20 sagarin rank 4 vs 7 . Rams on the otherhand are better Passing off at 10 vs 29 and sched strength at 5 vs 30.
I'm trying to do an apples to apples comparison - so I look at playoff data from previous years looking for a situation where the opening line is -4.5 and the categories above are similar and I alos look at regular season data as well. In this case there was a Playoff game that met the criteria - Phil played the Bears a few years ago and philly pulled it out 16-15 as the away team. I also looked at regular season data and there was additional games supporting taking the away team. I get it - the weather etc - Stafford plays inside etc. I'm going with my numbers.
In the Raven game Baltimore is better in all 5 categories except def passing. Bills opened up at 1 and the line switched to -1 for Baltimore. Often when you see a line of 1 for the home team - the away team takes it. My plays:
1. Rams Eagles under 43 2. Rams +7 3. Ravens -1 Good luck all
|
TheBuddah | 4 |
|
|
@7272 Agree Completely. If you are going to be successful betting you need to put a lot of work in - break things down, have a reason why A team beats B team etc. Just looking at lines, trying to figure out what the public is doing, etc. doesn't often give you the results CONSISTENTLY that you are looking for. It takes a lot of time and effort @GriLo I don't have a problem with a few things you said but I do have an issue with "In fact, I will go further, the money won in betting, theft, is the same thing, it is cursed money that did not come from the fruit of your work and is charged double from you later. Do not spend 1 dollar that is not the fruit of your work" Either way bol to you |
GriLo | 68 |
|
|
@FelixFermin21 Thanks bud and back at ya |
TheBuddah | 6 |
|
|
@insatiable Thanks bud back at ya |
TheBuddah | 6 |
|
|
Went 1-1 yesterday - let's see if we can do better today. Let's look at some numbers:
Gby 5 12 7 13 5 10 Line opened at -3.5 currently -5.5 . Gby is better in passing off at 12 vs 29; rushing def at 7 vs 10 and sagarin sched strength at 10 vs 31. Philadelphia is better in rushing off at 2 vs 5; passing def 1 vs 13 and sagarin rank at 3 vs 5. One thing in the playoffs we often over look is schedule strength - both teams that had the better sched strength - prevailed yesterday. It's not a sure thing - wish it was but many times teams with weaker schedules get exposed in the playoffs. Looking at games that have an opening line of 3.5 and comparing it to history data indicates take the away team as they can keep it close as well as possibly take it su.
In the Washington TB game - Wash has the worst sched strength in the league at 32 while TB is at 28. However, based on the team defenses of both teams - theirs a pattern I follow and in this case as much as I'd like to see Washington get it done (Live in the area) - I think TB takes it. My Plays today:
1. Gby +5 2. TB -3
Good luck all
|
TheBuddah | 6 |
|
|
@Fuse
I don’t keep track of players but hope they hit for ya bud |
Fuse | 76 |
|
|
@Macwestie1 Nice hit Mac |
Macwestie1 | 75 |
|
|
@andyv19 I've learned nothing is a lock until the fat lady sings. Thanks bud and back at ya. |
TheBuddah | 12 |
|
|
@docterd597 Back at ya bud |
TheBuddah | 12 |
|
|
@7out Thanks and back at ya bud. @Fuse Thanks and back at ya bud. @RavensOsNHoes I follow numbers and patterns. @bigred84 Hopefully Lamar and the Ravens come thru |
TheBuddah | 12 |
|
|
Play off time - Let's look at some numbers:
-2.5 LAC 17 19 14 7 8 29 Hou 15 21 11 6 15 19
LAC opened at -2.5 - currently the same or -3 . LAC are better in 2 categories - Off passing at 19 vs 21 and Sagarin rank at 8 vs 15. While Houston is better In Off rushing 15 vs 17; Def rushing 11 vs 14; def passing at 6 vs 7 and schedule strength at 19 vs 29. On paper - Hous and the points looks like the way to go; however, when you look at other games (playoff and Regular season) where the line opened at -2.5 for the away team and we had this scenario - the data supports taking LAC as they should win by more than 3 points. My plays based on data I collect: 1. LAC - 3 Even 2. Balti -9 -110
Good luck all
|
TheBuddah | 12 |
|
|
@Muck2Profit Thanks a lot bud. |
TheBuddah | 3 |
|
|
Anyone know the Opening lines from Bookmaker for today's games ? |
TheBuddah | 3 |
|
|
@CCO687
@D-Town Thanks guys - appreciate it. On to the playoffs. |
TheBuddah | 14 |
|
|
@Macwestie1
@insatiable
@saigon
@Skydog1842
@Rolexsports Thanks guys and back at ya |
TheBuddah | 14 |
|
|
@Guy_2U I’m a little slow - sos? @Macwestie1
@insatiable @saigon
@Skydog1842
@Rolexsports Thanks guys and back at ya |
TheBuddah | 14 |
|
|
@docterd597 Back at ya bud |
TheBuddah | 14 |
|
|
Haven't posted in quite a while - hope everyone is enjoying the season. Let's look at some numbers:
Minn 19 5 2 28 7 25 -3 Detroit 6 2 3 31 1 8
Detroit opens up as 3 pt fav -currently around the same. Minn is better in Def rushing at 2 vs 3 and Def passing at 28-31 . Detr is better in Off rushing at 6 vs 19, Off passing at 2 vs 3, sagrin rank at 1 vs 7 and sched strength at 8 vs 25. When you have the home team better in these 4 categories as well as an opening line of -3 for the home team - typically the home team takes it and gets the cover. Week 18 is always a extra tricky becareful week; however, I'm taking the Lions -3. Good Luck all
|
TheBuddah | 14 |
|
|
@buffer For the record the line opened at WV -1.5 then switched to wva -5 -5.5. Madduxsports.com |
buffer | 23 |
|
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.