TheBuddah

@buffer

 For the record the line opened at WV -1.5 then switched to wva -5 -5.5.    Madduxsports.com

@JerBear24

 it means exactly what you said.   Some books allow -1, many don't, they have -1.5 only.   

@steponaduck

 Thanks for shedding the light on Greg "Hoops" Peterson - didn't know the name.   BOL this season.

Wish everyone a great season.   As stated in other threads Sagarin doesn't do CBB anymore - I found Kenpom as a great replacement as he does rank and sched strength.    

Statfox ceased to exist this past June - a site that indicated that they plan to do many of the similar things like statfox - break out home and away data, like assists, turnovers, rebounds, shooting percentage def etc -  www.statsharp.com  .   I went to their website and it appears they are ready to do what statfox was doing we shall see.

Just curious if anyone used statsharp.com for football ?   

@RUM151

I think Fla. has improved and hopefully keeps it close - even if he does.    BOL either way.

@insatiable

Thanks bud and back at ya.

@D-Town

 Thanks bud - back at ya

No posted plays for week 9 - record stands at 38-32.  Let's look at some numbers:

-3  USF    101 117 95 69

    Flat.    99 96 125 101

Line opened at -3 for USF, currently -2.5.    Flat is better in T.off at 99 vs 101, total Def at 96 vs 117.   USF has a better sagarin rank at 95 and sched strength at 69 vs 101.    

With this situation and a opening line of 3 the home team keeps it close or wins it straight.    

My plays:

1. Flat  +2.5    

2. Conn -7

Good luck all

@FelixFermin21

@marcig

 Thanks guys and back at ya

@marcig

 BOL bud

@Fuse

 Thanks bud and back at ya 

@Unstoppable Force

 Let's do it !!!!

@barneybeans

 Barney!!!!!!   Longtime no see - hope all is well.     Based on the data I collect - I got it marked $$$  which means it worked out great and they won it by more than 2 but at the end of the day it's up to you.   Also, some books I deal with don't offer the - 1.   Either way I think they get it by more than 1 tonight.    

I posted once in the playoffs and lost the posted play so tread carefully - nahhh stick with me.    Let's look at some numbers:

       LAD  Flaherty   0

-135  NYY   Cole     83

Yanks opened up at -135 and has jumped to 145 give or take currently.  I give each pitcher a rating based on my own methodology- typically lower the number the better the pitcher.   On paper - Flaherty is 0 and Cole is 83.   I wish it worked where you take the pitcher with the lowest number but that's too easy.   

Another thing I look at is strikeouts per inning -both pitchers have more strikeouts than innings pitched a great sign of a pitcher at this time of year.   Based on the opening line of 135 for the home team, these ratings and where both pitchers have more strikeouts than innings pitched - i found 2 situations and both games the home team took it and won it on the run line.   I'm hanging my hat on that.

My play:

Yanks -1.5  +136   

Good luck all

@CCK

 Sorry bud, not tonite.   Grilled hamburgers and sausages . Mmmm good . 

@CCO687

 Thanks bud and back at ya . 

@insatiable

 Thanks bud and back at ya . 

@vankiep_0007

 BOL bud

@Fuse

 Longtime no see - hope all is well

thanks and back at ya 

@vankiep_0007

 Thanks Van back at ya

@Macwestie1

 Thanks Mac and back at ya

Went 2-3 in week 6, No posted picks for week 7 - record stands at 20-20.   Let's look at some numbers:

-3   Minn   17 14   2  30 6 2

      LAR    26 15 30 18 21 4

Minn opens at -3 currently the same (madduxsports.com).   It went from Min -3 -110 to even at many places.  The -110 to even for Minn could be due to Kupp coming back for the Rams. 

Minn is better in  Off rushing, Off passing, Rushing def,   Sagarin rank and Sagarin sched strength.    The only category where the Rams were better was Passing def at 18 vs 30.

With the info. I collect, I do a comparison to other games with the opening line being 3 for the away team and this scenario; There were 3 games that met the criteria,  the most similar was when Pitt played Wash and won 38-16.  The scores of the other 2 games - 33-28   Det/NO    and 17/23  Mia/LAC.    I'm hanging my hat on the game that was most similar (meaning the numbers) and the fact that 2 out of the 3 - the away team took it.          

My Play:

1.   Minn -3   

Good luck all.

@Macwestie1

 bol Mac

Rest of the board:

14.  Af +6  

15. Vandy -26 (-130)

16. Ga +4  

17.  Small Parlay   Tcu +140 to AF +190   pays 5.96 to 1

Good luck all