Astros vs Giants Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The San Francisco Giants grabbed a thrilling 4-3 win in 10 innings over the Houston Astros in Game 1 of the series on Monday night. Looking at MLB odds, Tuesday’s Game 2 is a pick ‘em at -110 apiece while the total has been set at 8.

 I’ve narrowed my focus to the player prop market, in particular, Houston slugger Yordan Alvarez’s total base prop, for my Astros vs. Giants predictions and MLB picks below. 

Astros vs Giants prediction

My best bet
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at DraftKings)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis
Tuesday’s Game 2 is an intriguing pitching matchup between Ronel Blanco (2.78 ERA) of the Houston Astros and Jordan Hicks (2.82 ERA) of the San Francisco Giants. Both right-handers got off to hot starts this season before taking a step back recently. Blanco has allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts while Hicks lasted just 3 2/3 IP in his last outing against the Diamondbacks and has surrendered seven runs in his previous two starts. 

Hicks’ transition from the bullpen to the rotation has been a revelation for San Francisco and he’s undeniably been a strong asset for a team fighting for the playoffs. That being said, taking a peek under the hood reveals some underwhelming metrics.

The flamethrower doesn’t make batters miss with his steady diet of sinkers, ranking in the 34th percentile in chase rate (26.7%) and the 40th percentile in whiff rate (23.9%) while posting his lowest strikeout rate (21.1%) since his rookie season in 2018. 

For someone who pitches to contact, he sure allows a lot of the hard variety. Hicks ranks in the 25th percentile in hard-hit rate (42.2%) and the 20th percentile in average exit velocity (90.1 mph). Given these numbers, we should expect some regression in his BABIP (.274 compared to the projected .298) and his left-on-base percentage (78.3% compared to the projected 71.1%).

The 27-year-old throws his sinker just over half the time (51.5%) while complementing that with a splitter (23.1%). It’s a fairly basic pitch mix, but it’s worked for him thus far. 

The thing is, Houston slugger Yordan Alvarez destroys both offerings. He’s posted 3.8 runs above average against splitters with an absurd .444 xBA, .583 xwOBA, and .930xSLG while hitting the offering hard 55.6% of the time. His hard-hit rate against sinkers (60%) is higher than any other pitch type while his xwOBA (.450) and xSLG (.710) trail only the splitter. 

Astros vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases

Jordan Hicks Over 1.5 walks allowed

Under 8

+800 at DraftKings

This SGP may seem uncorrelated and therefore offers nice plus money if it hits. Still, I like each leg individually and there are still many game scripts in which it rings true. Hicks struggles with his command, posting a Location+ (97) that ranks 80th out of 88 starting pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings. He’s waking 3.1 batters per nine innings but most projection systems project that number to rise above 4 and I can see why. 

I’m usually interested in Unders at Oracle Park and that’s the case here as both starting pitchers have been effective despite some concerns about the underlying metrics. San Francisco is 13-18 O/U at home while Houston is 10-21 O/U on the road and neither lineup has been setting the world on fire against right-handed pitching.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Astros vs Giants odds

Astros vs Giants live odds

Astros vs Giants opening odds

• Run line: Houston -1.5 (+145) | San Francisco +1.5 (-170)
• Moneyline: Houston -115 | San Francisco -105
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Astros vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis

• San Francisco has been a tough out at Oracle Park, going 16-11 in its last 27 home games while covering the first-five run line in 18 of those games.
  
  
• Houston is 1-9 O/U in its last 10 road games, while San Francisco is 2-9 O/U in its last 11 home games against the Astros. 
  
  
• Houston has gone Under the total is 13 of its last 16 games.

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Astros vs Giants trend

Yordan Alvarez is averaging 3.3 total bases in his last 10 games and has recorded 2+ total bases in six of his last nine outings. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Giants

Astros vs Giants game info

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