After a win on Friday, the Houston Astros have drawn level with the Seattle Mariners atop the American League West, with this series effectively deciding first place.
We have generally loved to play the total in Seattle this year, but my Astros vs. Mariners prediction finds value in the home side.
Without further ado, let’s get into my MLB picks for Saturday, July 20.
Astros vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Mariners moneyline (-134 at FanDuel)
My analysis
I don’t think this is the night to look towards the Under in Seattle, a bet that’s now hit more than 70% of the time.
That’s because Framber Valdez is on the hill, and boy do I hate the way he’s pitched. The lefty continues to be one of the premier ground ball specialists in the big leagues, only he’s gotten significantly worse at getting outs on the ground over the past two years.
Just two seasons ago in 2021, he sported a cool .227 Expected Batting Average on account of a palatable 41.6% hard-hit rate and a strikeout rate that was surprisingly better than 50% of the league. Well, the strikeouts persisted in 2023, but his xBA rose to a poor .252 thanks to more hard-hit balls, and as we chat today, he’s sporting a .260 xBA with an alarming 48.9% hard-hit rate.
Most crucially in this matchup is that Valdez is no longer near the league average in strikeout rate at 20.3% after more than a four-point drop there. The Mariners are the guiltiest team in the league when it comes to punching out, which is why it makes perfect sense that they’ve hit 18 points better against ground-ball types with a 25-point jump in on-base percentage to look like a competent offense.
Valdez should force the Mariners to abandon their unwise fly ball approach in a stadium that produces few home runs, and with more contact, the path to some runs here is quite easy to see.
On the flip side, the Astros have fallen into a bad habit of hitting the ball in the air — doing so at a 39% clip this month to rank sixth in the league. We’ve discussed why that’s a bad idea at T-Mobile Park, and it’s even more arduous against the man who’s inarguably been the best starting pitcher on a loaded staff in George Kirby.
The righty has been a strikeout machine who’s pitched excellently to fly balls, and after a middling showing by the Astros offense which was blanked after a three-run third on Friday and held to six hits, I think the choice here is pretty clear.
Astros vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Mariners ML
Framber Valdez Under 5.5 strikeouts
J.P. Crawford to record a run
I’m going to get a little cute here and use some more exotic markets and bets that we normally try to avoid on account of variance. With that said, it’s hard to get great odds on a same-game parlay here by simply executing a straight fade of Valdez and the Astros.
I will start, however, with shorting the lefty’s strikeout total. He did find 10 strikeouts last go around versus the Blue Jays, and the Mariners do strike out more often than any team in the big leagues. With that said, we’ve covered how this offense excels against ground-ball arms which forces it to make more contact, and Valdez in particular has been abysmal this year in racking up punchouts.
The big lefty has now struck out just seven Mariners in 11 1/3 innings this year and was forced to exit his first start against them in April in the sixth after allowing five earned runs. I think this is a similarly brutal position for him to be in, and this number is a full strikeout too high.
Then, while I’d love to back J.P. Crawford to simply record a hit, we’re unfortunately pretty much priced out of that market. Instead, with faith he’ll get aboard the bases on account of his .294 average versus lefties, preference to ground-ballers and .360 career average off of Valdez, I’ll take him to score a run.
The Mariners should cross the plate a good number of times, and out of the leadoff spot Crawford has to be your best bet. He’s scored a run in four of his last five games and has tallied seven in his last seven contests.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Mariners odds
Astros vs Mariners live odds
Astros vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (+170) | Seattle +1.5 (-210)
- Moneyline: Houston -105 | Seattle -115
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-115) | Under 7 (-105)
Astros vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mariners opened up at just -110 on the moneyline before the market quickly corrected and sent them down near -120. A steady outpouring of support has moved them past -130.
- The total remains at the opening number of seven runs, but there’s been some slight movement towards the Over.
- The Mariners account for 59% of the bets and 60% of the money at DraftKings.
- Similarly, 61% of the tickets and 60% of the handle is on the Over.
Astros vs Mariners trend
The Seattle Mariners have hit the moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+9.80 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Mariners
Astros vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Field, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Saturday, 7-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Space City Network, Root Sports |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Framber Valdez (8-5, 3.66 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | George Kirby (7-7, 3.29 ERA) |
Astros vs Mariners latest injuries
Astros vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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