We have quite a series to open this week when the Philadelphia Phillies host the Houston Astros tonight.
Each team will send a competent pitcher to the mound, and my Astros vs. Phillies predictions expect them to shut down the star power these lineups possess through the first five innings. Find out more in my MLB picks for August 26.
Astros vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
First five innings Under 4 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
Both bullpens have been slightly overextended over the past few days, so I'm weary about the whole game number. I'm not weary of each of these pitchers giving strong, deep performances for their team.
Zack Wheeler is Zack Wheeler, and length is something you don't have to worry about with him. He's gone six innings or more every start in August while giving up one earned run or less in three straight. The results for Ronel Blanco are more mixed, but I'm a fan of his matchup here.
Blanco's barrel rate has been his biggest issue this season, sitting near the bottom of the league. While that's always a concern when facing the Philadelphia Phillies, I'm not sure it's the worst time to face them with that issue.
Philly's barrel rate has been about average this season, but it's dipped below that line in August. Given that recent development, I'm not concerned about Blanco. A whiff rate creeping toward elite territory should mask any of those issues.
That's because the Phillies' whiff rate is the 10th highest in baseball this season, and they've struggled much of the season when facing pitchers who create a ton of swings with misses.
On the other hand, the aforementioned Wheeler has crept into October form. August has seen him post a sub-two ERA, which is the best of the season. In general, just watching him pitch has signaled he's rounding into form, as he's regularly made batters look noncompetitive at the plate.
That's what I'm backing here with Wheeler.
In many ways, this is a strength against strength. The Houston Astros are one of the best fastball-hitting teams in baseball, and Wheeler has a fastball quite literally in the 100th percentile. I'm expecting him to have the better of this Houston lineup, at least early.
Astros vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
First five innings Under 4.5
Zack Wheeler Under 18.5 outs
After speaking glowingly about Wheeler in my best bet above, naturally, I will explain why I'm fading him in at least one way with this same-game parlay. First, however, I must note bet365 does not allow you to use flat totals in same-game parlays, so I've pivoted to 4.5.
This number is too high for Wheeler. While I expect him to be fairly dominant early on, I think this Houston lineup can eventually get to him and run him early from the game. It comes late when he starts to fatigue, and the Astros start to connect on fastballs like they have much of the season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Phillies odds
Astros vs Phillies live odds
Astros vs Phillies opening odds
- Moneyline: Houston +142 | Philadelphia -168
- Run line: Houston +1.5 (-156) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Astros vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Under has been incredibly profitable since these two met recently. The total has gone in that direction in eight of the last 10 meetings with one push.
- The Phillies are 6-4 over their last 10 games, which has yielded bettors a small profit of +.27 units.
- Houston snapped a two-game losing streak last night and has gone 5-5 over their last 10 games, which has lost bettors 1.2 units.
Astros vs Phillies trend
The Houston Astros have covered the run line in 42 of their last 72 games (+14.40 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs Phillies.
Astros vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Monday, 8-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Ronel Blanco (9-6, 3.14 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Zack Wheeler (12-6, 2.73 ERA) |
Astros vs Phillies latest injuries
Astros vs Phillies weather
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