Astros vs Twins Prediction, Picks, & Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The Minnesota Twins may have lost Royce Lewis to injury this week, but they’ve continued to hit their way to victories and enter tonight's contest winners of six of their last eight games. 

They’ll continue their homestand against the Houston Astros, who have been equally as impressive of late with five wins in their last six, but with an utterly strange pitching matchup it would seem the outcome here is very much up in the air.

Will either team provide value on the moneyline with our MLB picks, or should we take a look at the total?

I'll answer that question and more in my Astros vs Twins predictions for Friday, July 5.

Astros vs Twins prediction

My best bet
Astros moneyline (+130 at FanDuel)

My analysis
It’s not as if either starting pitcher here is to be trusted. Pablo Lopez hasn’t entirely earned his 4.88 ERA on account of his better 3.28 Expected ERA, but with a lack of ground balls and a smattering of barrels, he’s managed to cough up a whopping 17 home runs in 17 starts to essentially put each and every start into question.

Houston Astros starter Shawn Dubin, meanwhile, is a pitcher we don’t know a ton about. He’s only worked 34 2/3 innings at the big-league level, but one thing we do know to be true is that he’s had issues with walks at all levels throughout his career to pretty middling strikeout numbers, though he’s done a decent job of pitching to ground balls.

That should put the Minnesota Twins in a prickly position, given it has had struggles in taking walks all season — an issue that’s become even more glaring in the past week — and it’s also ranked 25th in the league in hitting ground-ball arms with numbers that pale in comparison to those against fly-ball types.

I’m not sold on the Twins’ offense, even against a pitcher who’s had limited time in the majors, given this outlook. Dubin may only last four innings here, but it should put the Astros in a good place with the way Lopez profiles in the matchup.

The righty’s xSLG spiked in June to nearly .430 and he should be in danger of allowing more longballs given Target Field sits just outside the Top 10 in the league in Park Factor for home runs. Houston may own just a .160 Isolated Power in the last week, but they've at least hit eight home runs and continue to put the ball in play a ton.

When the ball’s been coming back into play for Lopez, it’s generally spelled trouble in the past month or so, and against one of the five best offenses in the game by wRC+ over the past week I think he will get the worse of this encounter.

Astros vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)

Astros moneyline

Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases

Jeremy Pena to record an RBI

+730 at FanDuel

We’re going to get a little wild with this Same-Game Parlay on Friday and go all out in our fade of Lopez.

The first man I’ll target is Yordan Alvarez, who owns three hits in eight at-bats against Lopez and a .298 xBA to back up those numbers. He also ranks first on the team in total bases against fly-ball pitchers, hitting .304 and slugging .544, and it doesn’t hurt that he’s absolutely engulfed in flames at the moment with a 1.485 OPS in the past nine games.

Then, we’ll get cute with backing Jeremy Pena to drive in a run. I like the fact that he’s recorded an RBI in six of his past eight games and should have some hitters ahead of him in Jon Singleton, Jake Meyers, and Yainer Diaz who are heating up and should be getting on base here.

Mix in the fact that Pena has struck out in just 15.8% of his plate appearances against fly-ball arms with a team-high 18 RBIs in these matchups and I think you’ve got yourself a sneaky great leg.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Astros vs Twins odds

Astros vs Twins live odds

Astros vs Twins opening odds

• Run line: Houston +1.5 (-155) | Minnesota -1.5 (+125)
• Moneyline: Houston +135 | Minnesota -160
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)

Astros vs Twins spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Twins have been seeing a lot of action on the moneyline, opening up at -146 and reaching -160 before being bet down a bit early Friday afternoon to just around -152.
• The total remains at the opening number of eight runs, though it briefly touched 8.5 runs and has seen some steady movement towards the Over.
• DraftKings is reporting that while just 35% of the tickets are on the Astros, they account for 54% of the moneyline handle.
• A firm 80% of the bets and 79% of the money are on the Over.

Astros vs Twins trend

The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.45 Units / 57% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Twins

Astros vs Twins game info

Astros vs Twins latest injuries

Astros vs Twins weather

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