What a difference a couple of games can make. If the Toronto Blue Jays had been swept by the Baltimore Orioles this week, many would be calling for them to throw in the towel this season.
Instead, the Jays took the final two games of the series and head west with much better vibes approaching the opener of their three-game set against the Oakland A’s.
Blue Jays vs A's prediction
My best bet
Over 7.5 (-122 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
If the Toronto Blue Jays have any hope of turning this season around, they’ve got to start immediately, carrying the momentum from the last two wins against the Baltimore Orioles into this series with the Oakland Athletics.
If you are looking at the Blue Jays’ glass as half-full, the optimism comes from an offense that is starting to show signs of life. Toronto ranks eighth in OPS and ninth in wRC+ since May 19 (18 games) thanks in large part to the resurgence of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the team’s willingness to change the lineup in a more meaningful way.
That lineup will have a chance to succeed to tonight when they take on the A’s. Now, these aren't the 50-win A’s from last season, but they are falling on tough times again. Oakland has won just six of its last 23 games, and a big part of that is due to injuries on the pitching staff.
The A’s have the third-worst expected FIP in baseball over this 23-game stretch because of it, and it’s why a guy like Hogan Harris has to take the ball for them tonight.
This will just be the fourth appearances and second start of the season for Harris. The 27-year-old left-hander has a 3.81 expected ERA over 14 1/3 inning of work this season. Harris also is using his fastball about 60% of the time right now, which can make him predictable and opponents are getting to it for a .291 expected batting average and a .524 expected slugging.
The Blue Jays will counter Harris with former A's hurler Chris Bassitt. It’s been an up-and-down year for the veteran right-hander and he has a 4.31 xERA while surrendering a .262 opponent xBA. Those rank in the 32nd and 29th percentiles, respectively, among MLB pitchers.
Now, Bassitt took care of business against the White Sox recently, but even a team like the Pirates was able to get to him for three runs on eight hits in five innings. The A’s, who rank 25th in OPS and 20th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, are arguably better than the Buccos.
Mix in a shaky Blue Jays bullpen that ranks 25th in xFIP and 27th in strikeouts per nine innings, and this total feels a touch too low.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs (+190 at PROLINE+)
Let’s get back to Vladdy. The Blue Jays star first baseman has been locked in for more than a month now. He’s hitting .374 with a .983 OPS since May 5 (28 games) but watching him go for an opposite-field home run yesterday may have been one of the best developments yet.
Guerrero is most dangerous when he’s taking the ball to all fields, and he’s been doing that to the tune of a lot of singles lately. If he can start driving the ball out of the park again, the Jays could be looking at a few more wins. So, two home runs in the series against the Orioles is a good sign.
Home runs also mean more RBIs, and Vladdy has driven in 19 runs over the last 28 games and at least one in three of his last five games. He also has an .822 OPS when facing left-handed pitching this season. So, it was a little surprising to see the price of the Over 0.5 RBIs at +190 for tonight’s matchup.
Our Covers Prop Projections call that a five-star play, so I’ll happily take that.
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Blue Jays vs A's odds
Blue Jays vs A's live odds
Blue Jays vs A's opening odds
- Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+125) | Oakland +1.5 (-150)
- Moneyline: Toronto -135 | Oakland +115
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Blue Jays vs A's spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this AL matchup as -135 road favorites and have consistently seen the action to this point with the line now in the -165 range.
- The Blue Jays certainly have their issues but they've been solid recently as big favorites, going 8-1 in their last nine games listed at -165 or greater.
- The total hit the board at 7.5 but there are some 8s starting pop up as of Friday afternoon.
- The Blue Jays have been an Under team much of the season but since we've seen the return of at least some of their production, they have started to cash some Overs. They are 7-4 O/U in their last 11 games overall.
Blue Jays vs A's trend
The Blue Jays have hit the Over in five of their last six games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. A's.
Blue Jays vs A's game info
| Location: | Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 6-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, NBC Sports Southern California |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Chris Bassitt (6-6, 4.13 ERA) |
| A's starting pitcher: | Hogan Harris (0-0, 3.14 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs A's latest injuries
Blue Jays vs A's weather
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