The Toronto Blue Jays need a win in the worst way possible, but they're taking on Bryce Harper and the white-hot Philadelphia Phillies tonight.
The Blue Jays enter this interleague matchup losers of nine of their last 12 games overall, while the Phillies’ 25 wins are the most in baseball.
I break it all down in my Blue Jays vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, May 7.
Blue Jays vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Under 4.5 first five innings (-132 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Anyone who follows the Toronto Blue Jays knows their biggest weakness this season has been the offense. Honorable mention to the bullpen, but it’s the offense.
No one was expecting this to be a Top 5 lineup entering the season but I’m not sure many were expecting it to be this bad. Toronto ranks 25th in batting average, 20th in OPS, and 17th in wRC+ this season. This doesn’t sound too bad but the reality is it’s awful for a team that hits Vladimir Guererro Jr., Bo Bichette, and George Springer at the top of their lineup.
This trio is the biggest culprit. Vladdy has an underwhelming .711 OPS while Bichette and Springer both have an OPS below .600.
Today, they’ll dig in against Philadelphia Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez. The 27-year-old left-hander earned a spot in the Phillies’ rotation out of camp and has been quietly effective. Sanchez owns a respectable 3.68 ERA thanks to a solid sinker and a devastating changeup.
Sanchez uses those pitches to get a lot of ground balls. Basically, the type of pitcher who can give the Blue Jays fits.
Toronto will counter Sanchez with Jose Berrios. The right-hander is having a great start to his season and while the Phillies lineup is daunting, if anyone is up to the task of slowing them down, it’s Berrios.
Berrios has allowed just seven earned runs over his first seven starts, is pitching to a 1.01 WHIP, and has recorded a quality start six of the seven times he’s taken the ball.
I’m betting Berrios is effective enough early on to keep this one close and low-scoring, at least through five innings.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs (+150 at PROLINE+)
I know there’s still a long way to go before we can say Guerrero Jr. is back but he is showing some signs that he is trending in the right direction.
Vladdy is on an eight-game hitting streak where he owns a .344 batting average, a .931 OPS, and has driven in five runs. That was capped by going 2-for-4 with a grand slam in Sunday’s loss to the Washington Nationals. The dinger was Guerrero’s first home run since April 10.
While Sanchez might not give up a homer to Vladdy here, I still like the Blue Jays slugger to impact the scoreboard. That’s partly because Guerrero has had much better numbers against left-handed pitchers. The former Home Run Derby champ has tagged southpaws with a .346 batting average and a .969 OPS this season.
Fingers crossed the Blue Jays smarten up and mix up the top of the batting order (Davis Schneider to lead off, thank you very much) to allow Guerrero to drive in more runs. Either way, Covers Prop Projections have Vladdy at 0.6 RBIs, meaning there is some value in him tonight.
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Blue Jays vs Phillies odds
Blue Jays vs Phillies live odds
Blue Jays vs Phillies opening odds
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-190) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: Toronto +110 | Philadelphia -130
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Blue Jays vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this game as slight road underdogs and have somewhat surprisingly seen the early action as they now sit about even money.
- Even though Toronto hands the ball to the AL Pitcher of the Month in Berrios, the Phillies have lost just three times in their last 20 games and are more than capable of doing some damage here tonight.
- The total hit the board at an even 8 and that's the consensus number as of Tuesday afternoon, but there are some 7.5s starting to pop up.
- Until the Blue Jays make some drastic changes to the lineup or their approach, they look like a solid Under team when their best pitchers are on the mound. The Under has hit in Berrios' last six starts.
Blue Jays vs Phillies trend
The Blue Jays have hit the (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games for +9.66 Units and a 31% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Phillies
Blue Jays vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizen Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SN1, NBCSP |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Jose Berrios (4-2, 1.44 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Cristopher Sanchez (1-3, 3.68 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Phillies latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Phillies weather
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