Toronto Blue Jays righty Bowden Francis has been racking up the punchouts through his past four starts, and he should keep the strikeouts coming against the Boston Red Sox tonight.
Find out more as Francis headlines our Blue Jays vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, August 29.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Bowden Francis Over 4.5 strikeouts (-182 at PROLINE+)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Toronto Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis has a strikeout total of 5.5 at the majority of shops, so this decreased 4.5 benchmark at PROLINE+ stands out. The 28-year-old righty has racked up 34 strikeouts through 27 innings across his past four starts for a meaty 11.33 K/9 and 36.2 K%. Sure, those are unsustainably high numbers, but this is also an outlier low total to clear.
While the Boston Red Sox run out one of the best offenses in the bigs against righties with a second-ranked .334 wOBA, they also strike out in bunches. Boston sports a healthy 24.0 K% against right-handed arms, and they also have a 26.3% overall mark in August.
The uptick in strikeouts from Francis aligns with opposing hitters connecting with fewer pitches, and his swinging-strike percentage climbing, per FanGraphs. He’s up to a 13.4 SwStr%, with hitters sporting a 75.6 Contact% across his past four starts, compared to respective 8.9% and 82.6% marks through his first 18 appearances of the season.
Make no mistake, Francis isn’t going to be flirting with double-digit Ks on a nightly basis moving forward, but his 2.78 xFIP during the highlighted four-start stretch reinforces his heater has sustainability. There has also been movement to the Over in Francis’ strikeout market, which has caused the total to climb to 5.5 at the majority of sportsbooks.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+165 PROLINE+)
My analysis
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is dialed in at the dish with a 1.200 OPS across his past nine games. It just hasn’t fully connected in the RBI column, with the Toronto superstar plating only five runs during the heater.
He lands in a plus-matchup to snap the funk Thursday, though. Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford has resembled a pitching machine across his past seven starts. The righty has been teed up for an 8.13 ERA, 16.2 barrel percentage, and 43.2 hard-hit rate.
Guerrero is also 4-for-9 in his career against Crawford, and the Blue Jays slugger has mashed against right-handed arms to the tune of a .396 wOBA and .222 ISO this season.
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Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds
Blue Jays vs Red Sox live odds
Blue Jays vs Red Sox opening odds
- Moneyline: Toronto +119 | Boston -128
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-176) | Boston -1.5 (+158)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-113)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There has been a notable move to the Boston side of this moneyline at Pinnacle. The shop opened with the Red Sox as a -128 favorite, and the club has moved to -140 as of Thursday afternoon.
- It’s been an even larger adjustment at bet365, with the Boston moving from -130 to -150.
- The total has also seen meaningful action and dropped from 9.0 to 8.5 at both books. Both the highlighted moves to the moneyline and total don’t align with the highlighted struggles of Crawford, so I’m definitely on the contrarian side of the action.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox trend
Francis has racked up 7+ strikeouts in each of his past four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, NESN |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Bowden Francis (7-3, 4.02 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Kutter Crawford (8-11, 4.19 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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