The Toronto Blue Jays had their winning streak snapped by the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park last night, and given the pitching matchup for tonight's contest, our Blue Jays vs. Red Sox predictions expect plenty of runs.
Find out why in my free MLB picks for Wednesday, August 28.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-132 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Toronto Blue Jays starter Yariel Rodriguez was tagged for three runs in the first inning of last night’s game and the Boston Red Sox never looked back in an eventual 6-3 win.
It was the sixth time in eight meetings this season these two AL East teams plated at least nine combined in a game and with Chris Bassitt facing off against Brayan Bello tonight, I like that trend to continue.
Bassitt has arguably been the Blue Jays most reliable pitcher this season, which says a lot about why this season has been so disappointing.
The veteran right-hander has been steadily shelled since the beginning of July, pitching to a 6.80 ERA while surrendering a .838 OPS to opponents over nine starts. That has dropped his expected ERA to 4.35 while his opponent's expected batting average is at .254. Both of which are well below the league average.
Bassitt has also had problems with the Red Sox as current Boston batters have gotten to him for a .272 xBA and a .559 xSLG.
Luckily for the Blue Jays, Brayan Bello has struggled with his consistency all season long. The 25-year-old right-hander owns a 4.65 xERA and a .262 xERA and will go against a Jays lineup that has been relatively good this month.
Led of course by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto ranks sixth in OPS and wRC+ in over 24 games in August.
Mix in a pair of bullpens that rank 26th (Toronto) and dead last (Boston) in ERA in the second half of the season and it’s easy to see another matchup between these two teams go Over the total of 8.5.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 hits (+145 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
You’re probably tired of hearing me talk about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Well, too bad, here is some more.
The Blue Jays star first baseman enters this game with a .322 batting average and a .956 OPS with 27 home runs and 87 RBI and he’s been tearing the cover off the ball in August. Guerrero has a .375 average, a 1.182 OPS six dingers, and 17 total extra-base hits this month.
Vladdy has also started hitting streak which is sitting at four games. But it isn’t just any hitting streak. He has multiple hits in four straight games. And has multiple hits in five of his last seven. And 11 times in 23 games played this month. It’s a little ridiculous right?
He also owns Brayan Bello, going 8-19 with three doubles and two dingers. That’s good for a .362 xBA and a .811 xSLG.
Anyways. I’m betting Vladdy to have another multiple-hit night at solid plus money.
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Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds
Blue Jays vs Red Sox live odds
Blue Jays vs Red Sox opening odds
- Moneyline: Toronto +125 | Boston -150
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 -165 | Boston -1.5 +140
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Blue Jays vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Toronto opened this AL East matchup as +125 road underdogs and they remain in that range as of early Wednesday afternoon.
- Boston evened up this series and has won five of the eight meetings against Toronto this season, but all things considered there appears to be some value on the Blue Jays as an underdog here.
- The total hit the board at 9.5 but early bettors were quick to jump on the Under as the line is down to 8.5 or 9.0 depending on the book.
- That movement created an opportunity to jump on the other side as the Blue Jays and Red Sox both have capable lineups with struggling pitching staffs and have played over 8.5 in six of the eight meetings this season.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox trend
The Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games for +10.15 Units and a 32% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox.
Blue Jays vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, NESN |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Chris Bassitt (9-12, 4.41 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Brayan Bello (11-6, 4.95 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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