The Toronto Blue Jays are hoping to bounce back in Game 4 of a four-game road series against the Kansas City Royals after dropping the last two.
My Blue Jays vs. Royals predictions for this April 25 tilt are avoiding picking a side altogether and instead targeting the hot bat of Bobby Witt Jr. — which you can read all about in my MLB picks below.
Blue Jays vs Royals prediction
My best bet
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 hits (+145 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Bobby Witt Jr. has looked like a future superstar in the MLB, and it appears he’ll be making the leap to All-Star status this season.
The third-year shortstop leads the Kansas City Royals in hits, doubles, and triples and sits second in both home runs (four) and batting average (.348). Witt Jr. is the real deal and among one of the scariest bats in the majors, with his .941 OPS putting him 15th in the league.
While he has a tough matchup against Toronto Blue Jays ace Jose Berrios, Witt Jr. has already racked up 10 games of at least two hits this season, including a 3-hit performance in Game 2 of the series.
Berrios uses four pitches more than 8% of the time with his sinker (39.3%), slurve (35.5%), four-seamer (13%), and changeup (9.6%). The slurve is the wildcard here, with Witt Jr. having not seen one this season and having only faced one in two career plate appearances.
However, he’s batting .300 or better against six of the eight different pitches he’s seen this season, and we’re banking on him continuing that hot streak against the slurve. What really hammers home the Over here though is Witt Jr.’s success against Berrios’ other three pitches.
Last season he hit .315 against sinkers — arguably the toughest pitch in baseball to hit — with a season-low 7.8 whiff percentage. And Berrios wouldn’t dare use his four-seamer or changeup against Witt Jr.
Witt Jr. is smashing four-seamers with a .320 average and .760 SLG in 2024, and last season his favorite pitch to hit was easily the changeup. He had a season-high .387 average against it with a .694 SLG.
Even once Berrios is pulled from the game, Witt Jr. should light up the Blue Jays bullpen.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Bo Bichette Over 1.5 hits (+165 at PROLINE+)
Despite being the shortstop with a pair of All-Star appearances to his name in this game, Bo Bichette has struggled to start the year and isn’t putting up anywhere near the numbers Witt Jr. is this season.
Bichette has a slash line of just .231/.290/.341, but this is the perfect get-right opportunity against Royals pitcher Cole Ragans. Ragans has primarily used his four-seamer (39.3% of the time) this season, and that’s a pitch Bichette would love to see.
For all his struggles this year, Bichette is hitting .389 against four-seamers. Even Ragans' other go-to pitches — changeup (22.5%) and cutter (16.2%) — are hittable for Bo. He’s batting .500 against the cutter this year and hammered changeups to the tune of .370 in 2023.
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Blue Jays vs Royals odds
Blue Jays vs Royals live odds
Blue Jays vs Royals opening odds
- Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+145) | Kansas City +1.5 (-170)
- Moneyline: Toronto -115 | Kansas City -105
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Blue Jays vs Royals spread and Over/Under analysis
- After taking the previous two games of the series, the Royals opened as a -120 moneyline favorite, with most books remaining there.
- Kansas City is off to a solid start at 15-10, sitting second in the AL Central, while the Blue Jays are just 13-12 and fourth in the AL East.
- The Over/Under has seen little movement, sitting at 8 after opening there. The Over can be had for -105.
- The Royals have been among the worst Over bets in the MLB this season, going just 8-16-1. Toronto is only slightly better at 10-15.
Blue Jays vs Royals trend
The Kansas City Royals have hit the moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+13.10 Units / 77% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Royals
Blue Jays vs Royals game info
| Location: | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Thursday, 4-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Kansas City |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Jose Berrios (3-0, 1.05 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Cole Ragans (0-1, 1.93 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Royals latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Royals weather
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