The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Atlanta Braves at Chase Field tonight in an NL showdown. Arizona has been mashing over the last month, and my Braves vs. Diamondbacks prediction for this clash is betting on its top slugger to have another big performance.
Here are my best free MLB picks for Wednesday, July 10.
Braves vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Christian Walker Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Christian Walker has hammered more than 30 home runs in each of the past two seasons, and he's on pace to have an even better year in 2024. The hard-hitting first baseman leads the Arizona Diamondbacks with a .507 slugging percentage and he ranks ninth in the majors with 178 total bases. Walker has been even better lately, slashing .404/.468/.833 over his last 10 games.
Today, Walker and the Dbacks face off against Atlanta Braves starter Charlie Morton. The 40-year-old Morton isn't the All-Star caliber pitcher that he was even a few years ago, and his expected ERA sits at just 4.20 after 16 starts.
Morton still has one of the nastiest curveballs in the game, which he throws more than 40% of the time. He also has an effective changeup, but opposing batters are mashing his four-seamers and cutters. Unfortunately for Morton, Walker crushes even his best offerings, slugging .591 against changeups this year and slugging more than .520 against curveballs over the last two seasons.
Walker has gone 4-9 with a homer and a pair of dingers against Morton in his career and he should have success at the plate again today.
Braves vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Christian Walker Over 1.5 total bases
Braves team total Over 4.5
Slade Cecconi Under 1.5 walks
The Braves have struggled at the dish since reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. suffered a season-ending injury at the end of May. That said, they still have a stacked lineup and lead the majors in exit velocity while ranking second in barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
That Braves squad faces off against Dbacks rookie Slade Cecconi, who began the season with a couple of strong starts, but has been awful since. Since the start of May, Cecconi has pitched to a 7.02 ERA with an OBA of .312 through 10 starts.
The Braves should be able to get to either Cecconi, a terrible Arizona bullpen (4.41 ERA), or both tonight. That said, Cecconi ranks in the top 10th percentile in walk rate (4.5%), while Atlanta is just 22nd in the majors in walk rate (7.6%). Cecconi should get knocked around, but he has walked fewer than two batters in eight of his last nine outings, and won't give out many free passes here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Diamondbacks odds
Braves vs Diamondbacks live odds
Braves vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -140 | Arizona +120
- Moneyline: Atlanta -1.5 (+125) | Arizona +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)
Braves vs Diamondbacks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Braves beat the Diamondbacks 6-2 last night to improve to 51-39 on the season.
- Arizona surprisingly made the World Series last year but hasn't played up to that level this season and is tied for third place in the NL West with a 45-47 record.
- Over the last 30 days the Dbacks are fifth in the majors in OPS (.788) while the Braves are 17th (.715).
- The Braves have won the last six meetings between these NL foes.
Braves vs Diamondbacks trend
The Diamondbacks have cashed the Over in 23 of their last 34 games (+12.00 Units / 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Diamondbacks
Braves vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports South, ARID |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Charlie Morton (5-5, 3.96 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | TBD (X-X, X.XX ERA) |
Braves vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Braves vs Diamondbacks weather
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