Two potent southpaws take the mound as Chris Sale and the Atlanta Braves face Blake Snell and the San Francisco Giants, the latter of which will be the target of my Braves vs. Giants predictions.
Both teams are in the thick of the playoff hunt and could use every win they can get — Atlanta holds the third and final NL Wild Card spot, of which San Francisco sits 1.5 games back.
Braves vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Blake Snell Over 7.5 strikeouts (-120 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Blake Snell has been lights out lately and it’s a welcome sign for a San Francisco Giants team fighting tooth and nail for a playoff bid. The two-time Cy Young Award winner took a while to ramp up to speed after getting signed late in the offseason, but SF is now reaping the rewards.
He’s allowed two hits or fewer in three of his last four starts in a display of sheer domination. Across 34 IP, he’s allowed five earned runs on 11 hits while recording 46 strikeouts. It’s the latter number I’m particularly interested in for Monday.
The Atlanta Braves hit lefties decently well but have one main weakness — the strikeout. They have an enormous 33.3% strikeout rate against LHP since the break, second-worst to the Rockies. The last time Snell had a matchup against a lineup this strikeout-prone was on July 27, when he punched out 15 Rockies.
Atlanta has recorded only 111 plate appearances against LHP in that span so it’s admittedly a small sample. If we increase that sample, the numbers are only marginally better (31.3% K-rate against LHP since July 1, 29.4% K-rate since June 25).
Snell’s high strikeout numbers lately are certainly supported by the underlying metrics, so I’m not anticipating a return to Earth in a favorable matchup. His 15.6% swinging strike rate is the highest it's been since 2019 and his 36.1% whiff rate ranks in the 98th percentile. The towering lefty ranks ninth in Stuff+ (118) among starters who have thrown at least 60 innings.
I’ll bet on him racking up eight or more strikeouts for the fifth time in six games.
Braves vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Blake Snell Over 7.5 strikeouts
Tyler Fitzgerald Over 0.5 hits
Giants moneyline
Snell isn’t the only Giant setting the world ablaze lately. Tyler Fitzgerald has been one of the surprise stories around the league, turning into a force at the plate that's been difficult for opposing pitchers to reckon with. He's red hot, posting a 230 wRC+ and a .498 wOBA since the break. He’s crushed LHP with a 171 wRC+ this season and has recorded a hit in 17 of his last 21 games.
SF has been a tough out at home (35-24) while Atlanta is slightly below .500 on the road (29-30), so I’ll back the home team.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Giants odds
Braves vs Giants live odds
Braves vs Giants opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 (-220) | San Francisco -1.5 (+180)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -110 | San Francisco -110
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Braves vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- Both teams have been tough to beat with their respective starters on the bump. Atlanta is 14-5 in Chris Sale’s last 19 starts while San Francisco is 7-2 in Blake Snell’s last nine.
- These teams tend to play in low-scoring games against each other, cashing the Under in 12 of their last 18 meetings.
- San Francisco is 1-5 O/U in Snell’s last six starts.
- Atlanta has stayed Under its first-five team total in 34 of its last 55 away games.
Braves vs Giants trend
Blake Snell has recorded 8+ strikeouts in four of his last five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Giants.
Braves vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Monday, 8-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports South, NBCS-Bay Area |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Chris Sale (13-3, 2.75 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Blake Snell (2-4, 4.31 ERA) |
Braves vs Giants latest injuries
Braves vs Giants weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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