The Atlanta Braves (63-56) go for the sweep of the San Francisco Giants (61-61) during Wednesday night’s series finale. Each of the first two games was decided by a single run in the 10th inning, so the margins have been razor-thin.
Read on for my Braves vs. Giants predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, August 14.
Braves vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Grant Holmes Over 5.5 strikeouts (-102 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Despite being a 28-year-old who hadn’t reached the MLB until this year, Grant Holmes has found success for the Atlanta Braves. A first-round pick back in 2014, Holmes has posted a 3.20 xERA and 2.84 FIP through his first 13 appearances.
He’s been used primarily as a reliever since 2021 but transitioned back to the rotation at the end of July. After throwing 98 pitches in his last outing, he appears to be stretched out and ready to chew up some valuable second-half innings.
Part of Holmes’ recent success is due to his newfound ability to strike batters out. After holding a K/9 below 10 at every stop since 2016, he upped that number to 10.9 at Triple-A in 2023 and 11.2 this year before earning the call-up to the majors.
He hasn’t slowed down yet, striking out 9.7 batters per nine innings with an impressive 26.8% K-rate. His 15.6% swinging strike rate is particularly impressive and is indicative of future success, and he ranks in the 87th percentile in chase rate (32.5%) and the 86th percentile in whiff rate (30.7%).
The San Francisco Giants have been woeful at the plate lately with the league’s worst wOBA (.277) and second-worst wRC+ (79) against RHP in the last 15 days. Chris Sale struck them out 12 times on Monday — which, alright, that’s Chris Sale — and Charlie Morton’s eight strikeouts on Tuesday were his most since mid-June.
Holmes has recorded 20 strikeouts in his three games as a starter. After only throwing 70 pitches in each of his first two starts, he appears better poised to pitch deeper into the game after throwing 98 pitches in his last outing. I’m buying the Over on his K prop of 5.5 on Wednesday.
Braves vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Grant Holmes 6+ strikeouts
Under 7.5
Robbie Ray 8+ strikeouts
The first two games of this series have been low-scoring with plenty of strikeouts, so why not a third? These two teams have cashed the Under in eight of their last 10 meetings at Oracle Park.
Robbie Ray has looked great recently, surrendering two earned runs in each of his last two starts while racking up 16 strikeouts. The Braves have the highest K-rate against LHP since the All-Star Break (34.2%) and both southpaws they’ve faced so far this series (Blake Snell, Kyle Harrison) have gone Over on their strikeout prop.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Giants odds
Braves vs Giants live odds
Braves vs Giants opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 | San Francisco -1.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta +100 | San Francisco -108
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Braves vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- San Francisco plays to the Under at home (27-33-1 O/U) while Atlanta plays to the Under overall (46-68 O/U).
- San Francisco is 1-6 O/U in its last seven games at Oracle Park.
- The Giants' lineup has been underperforming expectations, cashing the team total Under in 18 of their last 27 games.
Braves vs Giants trend
Each of the last three starting pitchers to face the Giants have gone Over their strikeout prop. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Giants.
Braves vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally South, NBC Sports Bay Area |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Grant Holmes (0-0, 3.79 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Robbie Ray (2-1, 3.98 ERA) |
Braves vs Giants latest injuries
Braves vs Giants weather
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