Two swooning National League playoff hopefuls begin a three-game weekend series Friday night as the Atlanta Braves (51-41) visit the San Diego Padres (49-47). Atlanta has lost two straight while San Diego has suffered four defeats in a row.
Padres starter Randy Vasquez has some concerning underlying metrics and splits against left-handed hitting, and my Braves vs. Padres prediction eyes an opposing bat in this matchup.
Read on for my favorite player prop in my MLB picks for Friday, July 12.
Braves vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Jarred Kelenic Over 1.5 total bases (+118 at BetRivers)
Best odds available in your area
My analysis
Randy Vasquez gets the call for the San Diego Padres, and while his 4.66 ERA may not stand out to bettors, his underlying metrics certainly will. A peek below the covers reveals a grotesque 6.32 xERA and 5.15 FIP, but the horrors don’t stop there.
The 25-year-old ranks in the unholy first percentile in xBA (.326) and is quite poor at making batters miss, with a 14.8% K rate and 8.5% swinging strike rate. What we have here is a pitcher who throws to contact but should be allowing an ungodly amount of hits, and that’s not a great recipe.
The Atlanta Braves have been poor against RHP all season long, and that’s especially true lately. Across the last 15 days, they rank 29th in wRC+ (77) and 28th in wOBA (.279) against RHP.
They don’t have a ton of left-handed bats in the lineup, which is a concern, as Vasquez has woeful numbers against them. Through 12 starts, the hurler has allowed a .431 BA against lefties with a 7.31 FIP and 2.48 WHIP. It’s hard to get any worse than that!
One Atlanta bat who could make Vasquez pay is leadoff man Jarred Kelenic. The former super prospect has posed a 119 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .191 ISO against RHP, while smacking 21 of his 24 extra-base hits.
This prop may not jump off the page to a lot of batters considering Atlanta’s poor track record against RHP and due to Kelenic going hitless in his last two games. Well, he collected 2+ total bases in three of four games before that, and the splits are sending a loud signal that I cannot ignore.
Braves vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Jarred Kelenic Over 1.5 total bases
Spencer Schwellenbach Over 3.5 strikeouts
Randy Vasquez Over 5.5 hits allowed
Rookie hurler Spencer Schwellenbach’s 5.02 ERA doesn’t impress, but his 3.90 xERA, 3.57 FIP, and 3.63 xFIP paint a different picture. The Nebraska product is striking out 9.1 batters per nine innings with a strong 13.6% swinging strike rate, and that’s a continuation of his dominance in the Minors.
The Padres don’t strike out much, but Schwellenbach has recorded at least six punchouts in four straight contests with strong underlying metrics, so this prop is too low for my liking.
Vasquez can’t post a .326 xBA and expect me to not bet the Over on his hits allowed prop. He’s allowed at least five hits in 11 of his 12 starts and at least six hits in four of his last six.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Padres odds
Braves vs Padres live odds
Braves vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+130) | San Diego +1.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -130 | San Diego +110
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Braves vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- Schwellenbach has struggled on the road (6.89 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) and faces a San Diego lineup that ranks second in wRC+ (117) and fourth in wOBA (.328) against RHP.
- San Diego is 4-0 O/U in Vasquez’s last four starts.
- Alternatively, the Braves are 0-6 O/U in Schwellenbach’s last six starts.
Braves vs Padres trend
In each of Vasquez’s last five starts, the opposing team has had two or more left-handed batters rack up 2+ total bases. Those teams have averaged 3.0 left-handed bats recording multiple bases. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Padres
Braves vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 7-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSE, SDPA |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Spencer Schwellenbach (2-4, 5.02 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Randy Vasquez (2-4, 4.66 ERA) |
Braves vs Padres latest injuries
Braves vs Padres weather
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