It's a fierce divisional battle continuing a four-game series this weekend when the Atlanta Braves meet the Philadelphia Phillies.
Nick Castellanos has been bringing his bat when his team needs it the most, and my Braves vs. Phillies predictions like him to feast again tonight.
Find out why in my Saturday, August 31 MLB picks.
Braves vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 bases (+130 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Nick Castellanos has been hot.
For August, his batting average is the highest of the season, along with a slugging percentage, RBIs, and homers. He’s been producing relatively consistently, and today, we're backing that trend to continue and grabbing him to go Over 1.5 for our best bet.
A good starting point for this bet is what Castellanos has done against Atlanta Braves starter Max Fried throughout his career. Point-blank: He's owned him.
It's a small sample size, but over 15 appearances against Fried, Castellanos has a .400 batting average, 1.03 OPS, and a couple of RBIs. You'd be bucking some trends if you're backing that stopping today; not just Castellanos' success but Fried's struggles — he's been poor lately.
Since the month started, Fried has only gotten beyond five innings once. He's also had some really rough performances, including giving up five runs to the Miami Marlins and four to the Colorado Rockies. Those aren’t exactly the most quality opponents, so Castellanos should be licking his chops at this matchup.
Castellanos has been playing his best baseball of the season while the pitcher he's facing is amid a rough slump. When you add in the extra layer of Castellanos's career success in this matchup, you just can't pass this up. I priced this at +100, so the +130 number is very attractive.
Braves vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 bases
Phillies F5 -0.5
We're paring our best bet with the Philadelphia Phillies leading after five innings in what amounts to Fried's continued fade in this spot.
He hasn't looked himself lately, and there's a genuine concern when you face the Phillies at home.
Why? Fried leans on the fastball so much, and the Phillies feast on it when playing at Citizens Bank. Their team-run value against the four-seam fastball is already a collective Top 10 in baseball.
However, that number jumps to the Top 5 when playing at home. I expect a fairly dominant performance from Phillies hurler Zach Wheeler, and for the fastball issues to hurt Fried.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Phillies odds
Braves vs Phillies live odds
Braves vs Phillies opening odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta +122 | Philadelphia -144
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 (-176) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+146)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Braves vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This has been a highly competitive series recently, with the Braves having a small edge over the last 10 games and a 6-4 record in that stretch.
- Atlanta has been hot lately. The Braves are 7-3 over their last 10 games and up 2.84 units during that time frame.
- Philadelphia has also been winning bettors money lately. The Phillies are 6-4 over their last 10 games, which has yielded bettors almost a unit of profit.
- The Phillies have taken some big money here. Since opening, we've seen the money line price move over twenty cents towards them.
Braves vs Phillies trend
The Braves have hit the first five Innings (F5) moneyline in 15 of their last 20 away games (+12.75 Units / 47% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies.
Braves vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-31-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Max Fried (8-7, 3.50 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Zack Wheeler (12-6, 2.75 ERA) |
Braves vs Phillies latest injuries
Braves vs Phillies weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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