The Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off a crucial victory over the San Diego Padres on Wednesday, bringing their magic number to two in the National League West.
However, my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions anticipate a different story tonight. Read more as my MLB picks expect LA's divisional aspirations to be spoiled by Joe Musgrove and San Diego on Thursday, September 26.
Padres vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Padres moneyline (-102 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The San Diego Padres represent a dangerous matchup tonight, boasting a .213 Isolated Power over the last two weeks, paired with their continued success in limiting strikeouts.
Los Angeles Dodgers starter Walker Buehler has allowed five home runs in four starts this month and his xBA sits at .258 with an unsightly .441 xSLG. Although Buehler struck out nine Colorado Rockies in his last outing, he surrendered four earned runs on five hits over 5 1/3 innings.
Meanwhile, Joe Musgrove has done a decent enough job of limiting walks and piling up strikeouts while holding a 2.42 ERA in his last four starts. The right-hander has struck out seven or more in each, and his opponent's batting average is at .209 for the month.
The former All-Star seems to be turning the corner, and his expert command should have the upper hand in a game where both offenses enter on a roll.
Shohei Ohtani pick: Cancelled show
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 total bases (-145 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Shohei Ohtani hasn’t found a way to figure out Musgrove just yet. He’s gone 1-for-8 in his career against the veteran righty with a .140 xBA and .183 xSLG, putting him in a precarious position on Thursday.
The breaking balls that Musgrove features have forced a ton of weak contact off Ohtani's bat, and although the Los Angeles superstar comes in with an eight-game hitting streak, I’m inclined to fade him tonight.
Padres vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres moneyline
Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 total bases
Joe Musgrave Under 5.5 strikeouts
None of the last seven starting pitchers to face the Dodgers have gone for six strikeouts, and only two have reached five. L.A.’s long been a disciplined group at the dish, but its strikeout rate has reached an incredibly low 18.5% over the last two weeks.
Musgrove will have success tonight, but I don’t expect him to miss many bats.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
Padres vs Dodgers live odds
Padres vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego -110 | Los Angeles -118
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-200) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Padres vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers opened up as -118 favorites, reaching as low as -125 before settling at -115.
- 56% of the bets taken on the moneyline at DraftKings are backing Los Angeles, along with 53% of the money.
- The total remains at the opening line of 8.5, with some slight and recent movement to the Over.
- While 60% of the tickets are on the Over, it's commanding a handsome 92% of the handle.
Padres vs Dodgers trend
Los Angeles has hit the game total Over in 47 of its last 76 games (+19.65 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers.
Padres vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, SNLA |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Joe Musgrove (6-5, 3.95 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Walker Buehler (1-6, 5.63 ERA) |
Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries
Padres vs Dodgers weather
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