The New York Yankees dropped the first two games of their series against the Baltimore Orioles and are aiming to get back on track with a win in the finale, which would finally clinch the AL East.
My Orioles vs. Yankees predictions see value in backing the home side to make its mark in a few different ways.
Let’s take a closer look with my September 26 MLB picks.
Orioles vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Corbin Burnes Under 5.5 strikeouts (+110 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Corbin Burnes is having a great season with the Baltimore Orioles but the strikeouts simply haven’t been there. He's averaging only 5.5 strikeouts per start and those numbers have trended further downward of late.
Burnes has only produced 5.1 Ks per game over his last 10 starts and those numbers were aided by back-to-back outings against a Detroit Tigers team that has posted the seventh-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitchers this season.
The New York Yankees are a completely different animal. They lead the majors in home runs, xwOBA, barrel rate, and walk rate vs. righties. They also take more pitches than anybody, waiting for pitchers to come to them while running up pitch counts in the process.
The Orioles have clinched a playoff spot and their chances of winning the division sit below 1%, according to FanGraphs. They don’t really have anything to play for and I think they could take the foot off the gas a little bit and lighten the load on their starters heading into the playoffs.
As an added bonus, rain is in the forecast, which could lead to an earlier exit for pitchers than otherwise expected.
Aaron Judge pick: TEASER
My best bet
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 runs (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
Aaron Judge is back to mashing baseballs after a bit of a lull at the plate. He has homered in five of his past 11 games, including four straight.
Opponents are understandably pitching more cautiously to Judge, who has drawn at least one walk in 10 of the last 11 games.
Between hitting for insane power and generating free passes, Judge is constantly on the basepaths. His run production is rising accordingly, with Judge scoring nine times over the past nine games.
I like him to score again in a game that still holds real meaning to the Yankees.
Orioles vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Corbin Burnes Under 5.5 strikeouts
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 runs
Yankees +2.5
Burnes is in a very tough strikeout matchup. Whether it’s the Yankees grinding out at-bats or Orioles manager Brandon Hyde protecting his ace before the playoffs, there are several paths to victory on the Under.
Judge has 21 hits and 20 walks over his past 20 games. Put another way, he’s been on base 41 times — twice per game on average. If that’s the case in this game, I’ll happily take my chances he cashes in.
Add in the Yankees — who are sending a red-hot Gerrit Cole to the mound and still have a lot to play for — on an alternate run line and you’re left with a nicely correlated parlay at a juicy price point.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Yankees odds
Orioles vs Yankees live odds
Orioles vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Baltimore +125 | New York -150
- Run line: Baltimore +1.5 (-170) | New York -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Orioles vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees have seen slight movement from the opener and now sit at -155 on the ML.
- The total has jumped to 8.0 with the same vig.
- The Yankees have covered the run line in 67 of their last 124 games (+13.55 Units / 9% ROI).
- The Yankees have hit the ML in 9 of their last 13 games (+3.10 Units / 15% ROI).
Orioles vs Yankees trend
Corbin Burnes has averaged 4.66 strikeouts over his last six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees.
Orioles vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, YES |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Corbin Burnes (15-8, 2.95 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Gerrit Cole (7-5, 3.67 ERA) |
Orioles vs Yankees latest injuries
Orioles vs Yankees weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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