The Philadelphia Phillies open a four-game series against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park tonight. MLB odds have Philadelphia as a -152 favorite, while the total sits at 8.5.
My Braves vs. Phillies predictions are bullish on the favorite, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Thursday, August 29.
Braves vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Phillies -1.5 (+142 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Veteran Atlanta Braves right-hander Charlie Morton takes the mound, and he should be a good fade candidate. Through 24 starts this season, Morton possesses a disappointing 4.24 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even worse as he sports a 4.65 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. These woes are likely to continue against the Philadelphia Phillies, a team Morton is 0-2 against over the past three meetings with a 6.07 ERA.
Meanwhile, left-hander Cristopher Sanchez gets the ball for Philadelphia. Sanchez outranks Morton in ERA, WHIP, xERA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
The Phillies' advantages don’t end there, considering that they also boast a stronger lineup. This season, Philadelphia paces Atlanta in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and stolen bases. As injuries have piled up for the Braves, their offensive thump has waned.
Add in home-field advantage, and the Phillies are the team to back.
Braves vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Phillies -1.5
Cristopher Sanchez Over 4.5 strikeouts
Bryce Harper Over 0.5 hits
We are also going to back Sanchez in the prop market as the southpaw ranks in the 99th percentile in chase rate. This current Atlanta lineup possesses a fade-worthy 32.2% strikeout rate and 35.5% whiff rate through 59 combined career plate appearances against Sanchez.
If we are backing Philadelphia to win by two or more runs, then we will also need some contributions in the hitting department. Enter Bryce Harper, who boasts a dominant .407 BA through 36 career plate appearances against Morton.
Harper has also recorded at least one hit in six of his past seven games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Phillies odds
Braves vs Phillies live odds
Braves vs Phillies opening odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta +1.5 (-170) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+140)
- Run line: Atlanta +128 | Philadelphia -152
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Braves vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Philadelphia opened as a -152 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- I project this line to continue to move in the Phillies’ direction, due to all the aforementioned variables.
- The total opened at 8.5 and also remains at that number.
- I don’t think we will see this market move too much due to the amount of contradicting variables, such as Morton’s poor pitching versus Sanchez’s excellence.
Braves vs Phillies trend
15 of Philadelphia’s past 18 wins have come by at least a two-run margin. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies.
Braves vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southeast, NBC Sports Philadelphia |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Charlie Morton (7-7, 4.24 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Cristopher Sanchez (9-9, 3.51 ERA) |
Braves vs Phillies latest injuries
Braves vs Phillies weather
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