It's a tale of contrasts on the mound when the Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins meet tonight.
Minnesota will deploy with youngster David Festa opposite intimidating veteran Chris Sale, and our Braves vs. Twins predictions expect the rookie's run of short and ineffective home appearances to continue against Atlanta.
Read on for more from my MLB picks.
Braves vs Twins prediction
My best bet
David Festa Under 5.5 strikeouts (-142 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Minnesota Twins are coddling rookie David Festa with baby gloves, and he’s topped out at five innings and 82 pitches across his seven starts. He threw 73 pitches over 4 1/3 innings in his lone relief appearance in the bigs. I don't expect Minny manager Rocco Baldelli to buck the trend today, either.
Festa has shown off an impressive three-pitch mix in spurts, but he’s graded out with just a single plus-offering thus far, per FanGraphs. Additionally, while his numbers have been solid through his past five starts (3.27 ERA and 3.14 xFIP), Festa has only thrown strikes 46% of the time. As a result, I expect a negative regression to his 11.86 K/9 and 31.9 K% from that five-start stretch. He posted respective 9.42 and 22.7% marks through his first three big-league outings, after all.
I’m encouraged by the Atlanta Braves' improved patience at the plate, with their walk rate soaring to sixth-ranked 9.1% in August compared to their 7.6% BB% through the end of July. The Braves have also climbed to a .334 wOBA and .192 ISO for the month after opening the year with respective .308 and .168 marks.
Finally, Target Field typically favors hitters, and Festa has fared far worse at home. He sports a 6.61 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and 4.02 xFIP while serving up a monster .409 wOBA to opposing hitters across his four home outings. He’s averaged just 74.75 pitches per home appearance, too.
Braves vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
Braves moneyline
Over 7.5
David Festa Under 5.5 strikeouts
Not only is the Braves offense mashing, but Atlanta lefty Chris Sale is dealing to the tune of a 2.62 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 2.52 xFIP, and he'll keep the good times rolling tonight. Still, the Twins have been solid against lefties this season, so I do expect them to put runs on the board, too.
Minny ranks fifth with a .325 wOBA against southpaws, and the Twins also rank ninth with an .326 mark since the All-Star break.
There’s a nice edge in the numbers for this same-game parlay, too. FanDuel has this SGP priced at just +330, so we’re landing a positive expected value of 12% with the +380 DraftKings odds.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Twins odds
Braves vs Twins live odds
Braves vs Twins opening odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta -140 | Minnesota +120
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+120) | Minnesota +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Braves vs Twins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There has been huge action on the Minny side of this moneyline, with Pinnacle opening Twins +134 and moving to +116 by Wednesday morning.
- The adjustment hasn’t been as notable at bet365. Minnesota has only moved from an opening of +120 to +115.
- This total hasn’t moved off the opening 7.5 number at either shop, and both have only slightly adjusted to the Under.
Braves vs Twins trend
David Festa has averaged just 74.75 pitches across his four appearances at Target Field this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Twins.
Braves vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally South, Bally North |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Chris Sale (14-3, 2.62 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher: | David Festa (2-3, 5.20 ERA) |
Braves vs Twins latest injuries
Braves vs Twins weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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