Baseball is back and we have a terrific matchup tonight when the St. Louis Cardinals head to the ATL for Game 1 of a three-game series with the Atlanta Braves.
Both offenses struggled to score runs during the first half of the season, and my Cardinals vs. Braves prediction is that scoring runs will come at a premium tonight against the pitching matchup of Cardinals starter Sonny Gray and Braves rookie Spencer Schwellenbach.
Read on for my MLB picks and why I expect the offensive struggles for both clubs to continue on Friday, July 19.
Cardinals vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves meet tonight for the fourth time this season under the bright lights of Truist Park.
Veteran righty Sonny Gray is expected to make the start for the Cards, and he’s pitched well this season. Gray’s command has been stellar; he strikes out a shade over 10 with a pair of walks and fewer than one home run per nine stanzas.
Gray has a nice matchup tonight. The Braves offense has plenty of historical firepower, but they strike out far too much (24.3%), and, heading into the All-Star break, were shut out in two of their last five.
Braves rookie righty Spencer Schwellenbach also boasts decent command and is coming off consecutive, one-run starts. He’s striking out a tick over eight with two walks and fewer than one bomb allowed per nine frames.
Like Gray, Schwellenbach also has a nice matchup. The Cardinals offense is a strikeout-prone bunch (23%) with a low walk rate that’s scored fewer than its below-MLB-average 4.1 runs twice across its last five games.
Both starters have been consistent and have pitched deep into ballgames this season. They should perform well tonight against mediocre scoring sticks. Both offenses strike out far too much with low walk rates, so the occasional bomb won’t hurt either starter much.
Tonight’s starting pitching matchup should be good, and the respective bullpens are two of the best in MLB. The pitching and mediocre hitting are why two of their three meetings this season ended Under the total, and this bout shouldn’t be any different.
Cardinals vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Matt Olson Over 1.5 total bases
I really like the Under 7.5 run total tonight, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see any hitting.
Braves 1B Matt Olson boasts a low xBA (.239) but his .271 BABIP from a .211 average against righties may indicate some positive regression for the Braves slugger.
Olson has bothered Gray in a small sample size (3-8 lifetime). Gray may not allow many home runs, but his high line-drive rate against left-handed lumber (26%) — which expands to 37.7% in his away uniform — could open the door for a struggling Olson to reach 2+ total bases tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cardinals vs Braves odds
Cardinals vs Braves live odds
Cardinals vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: St. Louis +1.5 (-192) | Atlanta -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: St. Louis (+110) | Atlanta (-130)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Cardinals vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Cardinals opened as high as +150 but are trading +110 odds across the US betting markets.
- Braves markets took a tumble from their opening –180 opening price. DraftKings reports 79% of the bets and 52% of the cash are on the Braves (-130).
- Over/Under markets haven’t budged from the 7.5 (+100) opener, but the odds have. Over 7.5 (-105) tops Over markets, while Under bettors will find odds from –110 to –115.
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Cardinals vs Braves trend
The Braves have hit the Under in 54 of their last 81 games (+28.35 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Braves
Cardinals vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Friday, 7-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Midwest, Bally Sports Southeast |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Sonny Gray (9-6, 3.34 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Spencer Swellenbach (3-4, 4.43 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Braves latest injuries
Cardinals vs Braves weather
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