The Cleveland Guardians will be looking to pull off the series sweep with a win over the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday night at Progressive Field.
Cleveland has pulled off a pair of one-run wins and are now up against Jameson Taillon, the target of our Cubs vs. Guardians predictions. Find out why in our MLB picks below.
Cubs vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Jameson Taillon Under 17.5 outs recorded (-110 at BetMGM)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Chicago Cubs starter Jameson Taillon has hit a bump in the road across his past four starts on the highway with a 6.86 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Opposing hitters have teed off for a .368 wOBA and 50.7 hard-hit rate, per FanGraphs.
His recent struggles align with his year-long statistical dip away from Wrigley Field, as his 4.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 4.49 xFIP are well above his respective 2.56, 1.12, and 3.97 home marks.
Additionally, considering Taillon posted a 4.84 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 4.49 xFIP through 154 1/3 innings across 30 appearances last season, his recent numbers shouldn’t be overly shocking. His velocity is also down across the board from last year, and his strikeout percentage has also dropped across his latest six outings.
The Cleveland Guardians also have an MLB-low .266 BABIP against right-handed pitchers for the season, and they have an even lower .258 overall mark since the All-Star break, so improved luck at the dish is on the horizon.
The Guardians are projected to have at least six left-handed hitters in Wednesday's lineup and Taillon has surrendered a .317 wOBA to lefty bats compared to a .282 mark to right-handed hitters this season. The gap has also been even larger during the noted six-start slide, with him allowing a .398 mark to lefties and a .248 wOBA to righties.
Cubs vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs moneyline
Over 8.5
Jameson Taillon Under 17.5 outs recorded
I’m expecting both offenses to put runs on the board tonight, with Cleveland sending Alex Cobb to the bump for just his second start of the season. He only pitched 4 2/3 innings and allowed five runs on nine hits and a walk during his 2024 debut. His velocity was also down across the board compared to last season.
The matchup should set up well for the Cubbies, too. Before being held to a single run Tuesday, Chicago averaged 4.27 runs per game since the break with a solid .327 wOBA and the sixth-lowest strikeout percentage (20.3%) in baseball.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Guardians odds
Cubs vs Guardians live odds
Cubs vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-190) | Cleveland -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: Chicago +110 | Cleveland -130
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Cubs vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- There has been notable movement to the Cleveland side of this moneyline for the second consecutive day, with Pinnacle opening at Guardians -120 and trading at -138 as of Wednesday morning.
- The adjustment hasn’t been as significant with just a 10-cent move at bet365. Cleveland is trading at -140 after opening at -130 odds.
- There hasn’t been a major change to the total, and it remains at 8.5 at both Pinnacle and bet365.
- The Under has seen slight action at Pinnacle with the opening -106 moving to -112, but after bet365 briefly moved off its opening -110 split on both sides, it quickly returned to the opening numbers.
Cubs vs Guardians trend
Jameson Taillon has recorded 17 or fewer outs in each of his past three road starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Guardians.
Cubs vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, Bally Great Lakes |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jameson Taillon (8-6, 3.50 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Alex Cobb (0-1, 7.71 ERA) |
Cubs vs Guardians latest injuries
Cubs vs Guardians weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
