The Arizona Diamondbacks will look to complete the three-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs as they head to Wrigley Field for Game 3.
Despite losing the last two games by a combined score of 8-3, the MLB odds have the Cubs as a -125 moneyline favorite, but they’ll have to stop a surging All-Star to pull off the win.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and Diamondbacks vs. Cubs predictions on Sunday, July 21.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Ketel Marte Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been handling business as of late with 12 wins in its last 17 outings, including six in its last seven. A massive piece of that success has been slugger Ketel Marte, fresh off making his second All-Star appearance.
The 30-year-old has been Arizona’s most consistent bat all season, racking up a team-leading 187 total bases while chipping in 19 dingers and topping the team in every slash category (.292/.364/.511).
Maybe it was the momentum of being named a starter for the NL in the All-Star Game, but Marte has been on fire dating back to the start of June. Last month, he slashed a ridiculous .341/.431/.637 and he’s kept surging through July.
In 38 games the last two months, he’s totaled 80 bases and he should be able to keep that average of 2.1 per game up against the Chicago Cubs. While All-Star Shota Imanaga is set to take the mound in the Windy City, nobody has been able to stop Marte over the last week — he’s batting .417 in the last seven days.
To make it tougher on Imanaga, who is just three starts removed from getting shelled by the Mets, Marte hammers his go-to pitch. The Cubs’ rookie leans heavily on his four-seamer, using it 54.7% of the time, and that could be an issue with the way Marte has hit them this season.
The two-time All-Star is smashing four-seamers with a .339 average, .615 xSLG, and 62.4% hard-hit rate. He’s also managed 22 of his 38 extra-base hits off of fastballs with four-seamers easily being his best pitch to hit this season.
While Imanaga has had a strong season, no pitcher seems capable of stopping Marte with how hot his bat is right now.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Ketel Marte Over 1.5 total bases
Shota Imanaga Under 5.5 strikeouts
Ian Happ Over 0.5 hits
To make matters tougher on Imanaga, Arizona is one of the best batting teams in the league and one of the hardest to strike out. The Diamondbacks have the third-fewest strikeouts in the NL (780) and it’s not as if Imanaga has been consistently racking up punchouts.
In two of his last four starts, he’s had fewer than four strikeouts and is averaging 5.8 per start this season. It’s going to be tough to reach that number against Arizona, especially with the way Marte’s been hitting.
If Imanaga slips up, he’ll need run support from a Cubs team that’s struggled in that department. However, Ian Happ has been playing his best baseball of the season lately, slashing .288/.356/.615 in July.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs odds
Diamondbacks vs Cubs live odds
Diamondbacks vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-190) | Chicago -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: Arizona +110 | Chicago -130
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Diamondbacks vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Coming off back-to-back losses, the Cubs opened as a -126 to -135 moneyline favorite with minimal movement.
- Chicago is just 47-53 this season, last in the NL Central, and is 1-4 in its last five, while the Diamondbacks are second in the NL West at 51-48.
- The Over/Under opened at 7.5 and hasn’t budged with some books offering the Over at even money.
- Arizona has been one of the best Over teams in MLB at 52-44-3 this season, but Chicago has been one of the worst at 43-53-4.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs trend
The Diamondbacks have cashed the Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+10.95 units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs Cubs.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Sunday, 7-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, Marquee Sports Network |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Brandon Pfaadt (4-6, 3.97 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Shota Imanaga (8-2, 2.97 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Cubss weather
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