The Los Angeles Dodgers will look to stave off a three-game series sweep after watching Houston Astros 3B Alex Bregman hit a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth.
Los Angeles boasts one of the best offenses in baseball, and my Dodgers vs. Astros predictions believe we could see L.A. score early and often against Stros rookie righty Spencer Arrighetti. Find out why in MLB picks for July 28.
Dodgers vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Spencer Arrighetti Over 2.5 earned runs (-105 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Los Angeles Dodgers boast the third-best run differential in the show, but they’ve scored only six runs so far across the first two games of their three-game series with the Houston Astros.
The Dodgers are averaging five runs per game away from Dodger Stadium, and they have a great opportunity to get back on track today against Houston righty Spencer Arrighetti.
That’s because the boys in powder blue spank right-handed pitching; L.A. has the highest walk rate, and an above-average strikeout rate (22%), which has helped fuel the second-most runs scored against right-handed pitching (384).
The Dodgers aren’t a club you want to face when having command issues, and Arrighetti’s command comes and goes. He sometimes gets whiffs at home (10.57 per nine), but he also issues four walks and 1.13 bombs per nine frames at Space City, which could lead to early trouble.
Arrighetti boasts some decent underlying metrics, but the only Top 5 offense he’s faced this season is the New York Yankees, and he allowed three bombs and five strikeouts with five earned across five innings against them in early May.
Los Angeles enjoys the fifth most away runs through five innings (2.77), which should lead to a big day for it at the plate and a rough afternoon for Mr. Arrighetti.
Dodgers vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Spencer Arrighetti Under 6.5 strikeouts
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases
Ohtani Over 0.5 home runs
The bookmakers won’t allow us to correlate earned runs, so we’ll get a bit creative.
Arrighetti’s home/away splits lend towards a high-strikeout game, but he’s only cleared seven twice across his past five starts. He’s up against a potent Dodgers lineup, and Shohei Ohtani is going to get him.
Ohtani is a hitting machine with a .328 xBA and .451 wOBA and has cleared 1.5 total bases in four of his last five. He can clear his total bases prop with one swing, which is why I added his HR prop to the ticket.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Astros odds
Dodgers vs Astros live odds
Dodgers vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Los Angeles +1.5 (-192) | Houston -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles (+105) | Houston (-125)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-102) | Under 9 (-118)
Dodgers vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers ML can be had for as high as +108 odds, with FanDuel reporting 28% of the bets but 63% of the cash on the Dodgers ML (+103).
- Astros markets at FanDuel have seen 72% of the wagers and 37% of the money on Houston (-123).
- Over/Under markets are reporting 9.0 runs across the industry. Over 9.0 (+100) is widely available, but Under 9.0 markets are juicy (–120).
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Dodgers vs Astros trend
Arrighetti has surrendered Over 2.5 earned runs in four of his past seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Astros
Dodgers vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 7-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNLA, SCHN |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | River Ryan (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Spencer Arrighetti (4-8, 5.65 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Astros latest injuries
Dodgers vs Astros weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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