Comerica Park will play host to a postseason game for the first time since 2014, but unfortunately for Detroit Tigers fans, they won’t even have a real starting pitcher for Game 3 against the Cleveland Guardians.
While not knowing who will start games is a problem, not getting hits is a bigger one. My Guardians vs. Tigers predictions look at why it could be a tough day at the dish for the home team.
Here are my MLB picks for this ALDS showdown on Wednesday, Oct. 9. Plus, Tony Sartori has a trio of Guardians vs. Tigers props ready to fill out your betslip.
Guardians vs Tigers prediction
Who will win Guardians vs Tigers Game 3?
The Cleveland Guardians will win Game 3. And it's not because they're the only team with a starting pitcher in this matchup, but because the Detroit Tigers are having real problems stringing together hits. Don't expect Emmanuel Clase to give up another late bomb today.
My Guardians vs Tigers best bet
Pick
Guardians first five innings -0.5 (+136 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Yes, the Tigers got a massively clutch three-run home run from Kerry Carpenter in the top of the ninth in Game 2 to even up this American League Championship Series, but the question is, where do they go from here? They realistically have one starter (albeit an elite one), and in general, the hitting has not been good enough.
As a team this postseason, the Tigers are hitting .226 with a .646 OPS and striking out an ugly 30.3% of the time.
Today, they’ll face veteran Alex Cobb in the batter's box. The 37-year-old has made just three starts this season, the last coming on Sept. 1, but the Guardians will turn to him in a key spot. He allowed just one earned run on five hits over 11 2/3 innings in his final two starts of the regular season.
Cobb will use his sinker-splitter mix to try and keep the Tigers hitters off balance, but Detroit did a solid job of doing that themselves, at least against righties. The Tigers ended the regular season ranked 21st in betting average, 22nd in OPS, and 18th in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching.
Meanwhile, Detroit counters Cobb with another bullpen day. Which, sure, the Tigers’ relievers have been pretty good since the start of August. They rank second in ERA and 10th in xFIP, but they 've logged a ton of innings, 60 more than the next closest team. That showed in Game 1, which the Guardians won 7-0.
I have more confidence in Cleveland's game plan and its more experienced lineup heading into this matchup. I like the Guardians to have the lead through five innings, thanks in part to a solid performance from Cobb.
Guardians vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)
Guardians first five innings -0.5
Matt Vierling Under 0.5 hits
Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 hits
I’m going to pile on the Tigers hitters by taking two of them to go hitless, starting with Matt Vierling.
You can make the case Vierling has been Detroit's most consistent hitter during the postseason with a .267 average, but the third baseman has struck out a whopping seven times and Cobb could be a problem for him as he had a .201 expected batting average vs. offspeed pitches this season.
Then, I’m sorry, but Spencer Torkelson is low-hanging fruit. It was a tough season for the former top prospect, who ended the regular season with a .219 average and a .669 OPS. Torkelson was also in the bottom at 16% in terms of strikeout rate, and that's carried over to the postseason, where he's 1-12 with seven Ks.
Add both to go hitless with Cleveland leading through five, and you get a +900 SGP, which can be boosted by 30% at bet365.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Guardians vs Tigers odds
Guardians vs Tigers live odds
Guardians vs Tigers opening odds
- Moneyline: Cleveland -110 | Detroit -110
- Run line: Cleveland -1.5 (+185) | Detroit +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: Over 7.0 | Under 7.0
Guardians vs Tigers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- It feels like this game is going to stay around a coin flip, but a few hours out from the first pitch, bettors are giving the slight edge to the home-team Tigers, who are now at -115.
- As noted, I see value in Guardians today. Their impact bats will be the difference against the Tigers' chaotic and overworked bullpen.
- The total hit the board at 7, and while that is still the consensus line, some 7.5s are starting to pop up.
- Both games in this series have seen seven runs or fewer, and while the Guardians have a .167 postseason average, they put up seven runs on this Tigers bullpen in Game 1.
Guardians vs Tigers trend
The Tigers have only covered the first five innings run line in 37 of their last 80 games at home for -11.00 units and a -12% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Tigers.
Guardians vs Tigers Game 3 info
| Location: | Comerica Park, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Wednesday, 10-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Alex Cobb (2-1, 2.76 ERA) |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | TBD |
Guardians vs Tigers latest injuries
Guardians vs Tigers weather
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