The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians meet in the Bronx for Game 2 of the ALCS this evening
It was about as convincing of a postseason win as you'll get for the Yankees last night, taking control early and never looking back. Tonight features one of the series's best-projected pitching matchups, and that will be reflected in my Guardians vs. Yankees predictions.
Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, October 15, below.
Guardians vs Yankees prediction
Who will win Guardians vs Yankees Game 2?
How do I pick against the New York Yankees? Tanner Bibee is a strong pitcher and should limit New York's offense, but that's still not enough to get me off of Gerrit Cole.
He looked himself in his second postseason start against the Royals, where he went seven innings and allowed just one earned run. I expect him to be the difference and there are more clear areas of exploitation against Bibee for the Yankees hitters than vice versa.
My Guardians vs Yankees best bet
First five innings Under 4
-115 at bet365
My analysis
I trust both of these pitchers to deliver this evening, at least early on. Because of that, I'm grabbing the first five innings Under 4. I projected this at 3.3, so there's plenty of room for an edge.
It was a little surprising to see Bibee at the start of the postseason in a scoreless game with 74 pitches, but those 74 pitches spoke to how good he could be. Detroit's offense isn't this Yankees offense, but even so, the Tigers looked lost. It's always difficult to suggest any pitcher can shut down this Yankees lineup, but he's well poised to succeed.
Bibee does the things you need to do against the Yankees well. He doesn't give up a bunch of hard contact, nor does he allow much barrelling up of the ball. That's vital, given the Yankees are probably the most home-run-reliant team left in the playoffs. When you can limit that, you can stifle the offense, and I like his chances of doing that early on.
On the other side of things is Cole. He's had an uneven season, but I like him in this spot; at least the numbers make you like him. In his three starts against the Cleveland Guardians this year, he's posted a 1.3 ERA in just over an average of six innings pitched. His last start against them was one of the best of the year when he went eight scoreless innings.
As he's been throughout his career, Cole is a strikeout thrower at his best when he can create swing and miss. Even in one of the worst seasons of his career —this year — he's still posted a strikeout rate in the Top 30% of baseball.
When he's able to create whiffs, he's able to control games. Against Cleveland, he should have had some reasonable success in doing that. The Guardians ranked just above average in whiff rate on the season, but in the playoffs, they've had the second-highest whiff rate of any team remaining.
This total is too high. As any Game 2 is, this feels like the biggest game of the series. Cleveland will spare nothing to reduce the runs the Yankees put up, and New York has a future hall of famer on the mound who's three wins away from the World Series. You'd back him to deliver in those circumstances more often than not.
Guardians vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
First five innings Under 4.5
Tanner Bibee Under 12.5 outs
We're getting a huge boost here on a non-correlated play. I'm not sure we should be getting such a big boost, though, so I priced this a little lower.
Logic would say that if Bibee had been pulled before recording 13 outs, he would have given up runs and put our Under in real danger. However, as I noted earlier, that wasn't the case against the Tigers when he had yet to reach the 75-pitch threshold and was pulled from a scoreless game after recording just 13 outs.
Tonight, the Guardians have an extremely talented and rested bullpen in a must-win game. Bibee doesn't need to give up runs to be pulled; he only needs to face some stress. I'll take a chance on that happening at such a good price.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Yankees odds
Guardians vs Yankees live odds
Guardians vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Cleveland +140 | New York -165
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-160) | New York -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Guardians vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees have dominated this series recently with seven wins in the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including three straight.
- The Yankees have won three straight postseason games and six of its last 10 overall.
- The Guardians have now lost three of its last five games this postseason but are still 5-5 over its last 10 games overall.
- So far, these two teams have gone a combined 8-3 to the Under in the postseason.
Guardians vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have won three straight games against the Guardians. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Yankees.
Guardians vs Yankees Game 2 info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 10-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:38 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Tanner Bibee (0-0, 2.08 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Gerrit Cole (1-0, 3.00 ERA) |
Guardians vs Yankees latest injuries
Guardians vs Yankees weather
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