It's a key AL series when the New York Yankees welcome the Cleveland Guardians to town.
These two teams have been just average over the last 10 games and will be meeting at very similar points in their season. Each is locked in a tight divisional battle and looking to catch fire heading into the playoffs.
What's the best bet here? Read on for my Yankees vs. Guardians predictions and free MLB picks for Tuesday, August 20.
Guardians vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Steven Kwan Over 0.5 walks (+125 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
One of the defining characteristics of the Cleveland Guardians' organization has always been good quality at-bats. They don't chase unhittable pitches and make pitchers earn it at the plate. While that's changed a bit this season and they've swung more, you can still find these elements throughout their organization. One of the best examples of this is Steven Kwan, and why I'm grabbing him to record a walk as my best bet.
Luis Gil, who takes the mound tonight for the New York Yankees, enters this game with a walk rate in the Bottom 10% of baseball, and it's gotten worse as the season continues. He's exceeded his walk number twice in his last three starts, and Kwan is well-suited to make him work.
Kwan comes into this game with an average walk rate, but the real edge starts to show when you look at this matchup. Gil is a pitcher predicated on getting swings and misses and the metrics send that message. Gil has an elite whiff rate and a high walk rate because if batters aren't swinging at the borderline pitches, then frustration sets in. We've seen it all season, and it's the next jump Gil must make to grow as a pitcher. Kwan is a nightmare to face in this scenario.
Kwan ranks in the 100th percentile in whiff rate, the 99th percentile in K rate, and the 97th percentile in chase rate. For my money, he's one of the most underrated hitters in baseball because of those things. More importantly, it is well set up to draw walks from a pitcher dependent on swings and misses. And don't get me wrong, Gil is quite good at getting those swings and misses. The problem? Kwan is just better at avoiding them.
There are a few different ways to attack this, but I like the value of this number, given that I make it around a coin-flip. Kwan has never faced Gil in his career but has gotten a walk in nearly 75% of his matchups with starting pitchers ranking in the Top 25% percentile of whiff rate this season.
Guardians vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Steven Kwan Over 0.5 walks
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases
I am pairing Aaron Judge to go Over 1.5 total bases with my best bet.
This one is short and straightforward. I've talked extensively about how well Judge has hit left-handed throwers this season, and that number has risen. He's now sixth overall in baseball among qualified hitters in isolated power against lefties. He'll see one today in Matthew Boyd, who is just making his second start of the season. That power prowess is a problem for him to manage, given that he's had an above-average hard-hit rate throughout his career.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Yankees odds
Guardians vs Yankees live odds
Guardians vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-160) | New York -1.5 (+132)
- Moneyline: Cleveland +134 | New York -158
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Guardians vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees have dominated this head-to-head series over the last 10 games with a 7-3 record.
- A trend that's been just as strong in that stretch is the total going Under. It's also 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head matchups.
- New York has been running in place recently. The Yankees have gone 5-5 Over their last 10 games, which has lost bettors just over two units in that stretch.
- Cleveland is also 5-5 over its last 10 games but has lost bettors considerably less, given it's been an underdog in about half of those games.
Guardians vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have hit the Over in 41 of their last 64 games (+17.45 Units / 25% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Yankees.
Guardians vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 8-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSGL, YES |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Matthew Boyd (0-0, 1.69 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (12-6, 3.26 ERA) |
Guardians vs Yankees latest injuries
Guardians vs Yankees weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
