After putting up nine runs in an extra-inning win yesterday vs. the New York Yankees, the Cleveland Guardians look to stay hot at the plate tonight.
With Nestor Cortes struggling with hard-hit rate, my Guardians vs. Yankees prediction has Jose Ramirez in line for a big day at the plate.
Find out more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, August 21.
Guardians vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 bases (+110 at BetRivers)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Before the money poured in on the New York Yankees, I would have had a slight edge on New York. However, I no longer do. The same goes for the total, which I have projected to be 8.8. Just like we did for our best bet win yesterday of Steven Kwan Over 0.5 walks, we're headed to the prop market for this one.
Our bet? Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 bases. You rarely get such an appealing price on such a big power hitter. It's even better when you consider the matchup advantages he'll have today against Yankees lefty Nestor Cortes.
We've chronicled Aaron Judge's success against left-handed pitchers this season, and Ramirez is just a little behind his numbers from a power perspective. Today, he ranks fifth in baseball among qualified hitters in isolated power against lefties. In addition to that, the surrounding metrics are strong, like a wOBA of .483. That's a number that also ranks amongst the top five of baseball. It's what initially jumps out about this matchup, but it doesn't stop there.
What has been the biggest issue for Cortes this season? Probably the hard-hit ball.
Not only does he have the lowest ground ball rate in the American League for a starter, but his hard-hit rate is in the bottom 10% of baseball, too. These weren't issues that plagued him a season ago. However, Cortes was always due for some nasty regression, and we're seeing that now.
Giving up a fair amount of hard hits is not exactly a problem you want when facing Ramirez. Unless you're living under a rock, you know that Ramirez is one of the best power hitters in the game. Besides the pitcher's handedness, this aspect is just another feather in Ramriez's cap here.
This price is a function of Ramriez's historical numbers against Cortes. They could be better. However, things are much different now than they've been. Cortes has faded some compared to past years, and Ramirez is hitting lefties better than he has at any point in his career. I like him to take advantage of a great matchup tonight after a couple of poor games in a row.
Guardians vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 bases
Guardians moneyline
The drastic line movement has forced me to make a move here, and that's pairing the Guardians ML with our best bet today. I projected this number at +142, so getting 8 points more than forcing my hand.
This number seems to be a reflection of the "bounce back" belief in the Yankees more than anything because, on paper, Cleveland should be able to put up runs. I've already talked about what Ramirez can do against lefties, but overall, the Guardians are strong as a team. They'll come into this one with the 6th highest isolated power rating in baseball against lefties. That makes them well-suited to hit Cortes hard here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Yankees odds
Guardians vs Yankees live odds
Guardians vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Cleveland +144 | New York -157
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-125) | New York -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Guardians vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees opener up as -157 favorites, but have since been bet up to -200.
- The Guardians have drifted to +165 at most books.
- The total has held steady at 8.5 juiced slightly to the Over.
Guardians vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 57 of their last 95 games (+17.90 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Yankees.
Guardians vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AmazonPV |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Joey Cantillo (0-2, 6.23 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Nestor Cortes (6-10, 4.20 ERA) |
Guardians vs Yankees latest injuries
Guardians vs Yankees weather
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