Mariners vs Pirates Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The Seattle Mariners and Pittsburgh Pirates will take the primetime spotlight this Friday as Paul Skenes toes the rubber.

It's been a miserable run for the Pirates, who have lost 10 straight games and plummeted to the bottom of the NL Central after showing some early-season promise. Meanwhile, the Mariners have continued to battle in the AL West. Though they've lost six of 10, they are only three games outside the divisional lead.

Can Skenes stop the Bucs' slide? Read on for my free Mariners vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks for August 16.

Mariners vs Pirates prediction

My best bet
Pirates team total Under 3.5 (-125 at bet365)

My analysis
My best bet is isolating one of the biggest struggles of the Pittsburgh Pirates recently — the offense.

Pittsburgh has been outscored 60-33 over its 10-game losing streak and has scored two or fewer runs in four of its last five games.

"I think we've chased too much," Pirates manager Derek Shelton told the assembled media earlier this week.

You don't want that issue with Seattle Mariners righty Logan Gilbert pitching against you. That's the problem for the Pirates in this matchup, and that's why I'm on the Pittsburgh team total Under 3.5.

Gilbert has felt underrated this season and has quietly put together one of the better seasons for any starting pitcher in the league. He'll enter this game with a chase rate in an elite baseball placement, ranking in the 25th percentile. Along with that is a whiff rate that's been even better, in the Top 15th percentile of the league. He can utilize both of those things as a massive weapon this evening. 

Shelton was correct in his diagnosis of his team. They have chased far too much, but more importantly, they are making far too little contact when they do chase. They'll come into this game with the fourth-lowest chase contact rate in baseball, barely over 50%. We have some context for what's happened to Gilbert when he's faced teams ranking similarly, and that's domination.

The Oakland Athletics rank alongside the Pirates in this metric. Gilbert faced them in May and went seven innings, allowing one earned run. In addition to that, he's also faced the Philadelphia Phillies and the Cincinnati Reds, who rank close to the Pirates in this metric. Against both, he went six or more innings and allowed one earned run or less.  

The thought process here is multifaceted. If Mother Nature doesn't get in the way (we'll cover that in a bit), then Gilbert can go deep into this game and set us up very strongly to cash this bet. However, even if it does, we are well-positioned. We have the benefit of fading a Pittsburgh offense that has been lifeless lately and a Mariners bullpen equipped with many pitchers with excessively high chase rates — the key facet of this handicap.  

Paul Skenes player prop

My best bet
Paul Skenes Under 7.5 strikeouts (+130 at bet365)

My analysis

There's a lot to like here when betting this Paul Skenes Under at such a nice number. 

For starters, I projected this number at 7.7, which means there's value in the Under at plus-odds before considering all the surrounding factors. You know that the Mariners have the highest strikeout rate in baseball, but it's improved slightly over the last few games. The story here is everything else, though. 

One of those factors is the impending pressure from the fanbase to lessen Skenes' workload. Over 50% of the fanbase told a recent Pirates sports blog that they'd like to see Skenes shut down for the season. He's certainly looked tired over his last few starts, and the numbers have backed that up, with his velocity dropping every month since his debut. 

The second is the weather around Pittsburgh. I'll leave that analysis to the experts, but a delay would be golden for our Under bets. It would likely add even more reason to shorten this Skenes appearance. After all, he's thrown over 100 pitches in three of his last four starts. 

Mariners vs Pirates same-game parlay (SGP)

Pirates team total Under 3.5

Paul Skenes Under 17.5 outs recorded

+350 at bet365

You may have figured I was going in this direction for my same-game parlay.

The weather plays a big role here, but outside of that, how much more do the Pirates want to risk the runway for Skenes? You're looking at a potential Cy Young winner next season and his biggest skill is extremely high velocity. It's anecdotal, but the Pirates are aware of young phenoms who have had some injury issues due to being overextended for the last few years. I'm looking at you, Spencer Strider.

Skenes has gone Under this number just once in his last three starts. The other two, though, have been precisely 18. That feels particularly noteworthy given that the last five starts before that all included Skenes recording 20 or more outs.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mariners vs Pirates odds

Mariners vs Pirates live odds

Mariners vs Pirates opening odds

• Run line: Seattle +1.5 (-210) | Pittsburgh -1.5 (+172)
• Moneyline: Seattle +108 | Pittsburgh -126
• Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5

Mariners vs Pirates spread and Over/Under analysis

• Seattle has dominated this series recently. The Mariners are 7-3 against the Pirates in their last 10 head-to-head meetings.
• The Pirates have completely fallen off in August. They've lost 10 straight games and cost bettors over 10 units in the process. It's the longest active losing streak in baseball.
• The Pirates' offense has been dreadful. Over its last three games, it has scored just three runs.
• There's been some disagreement with the total here. Some books have this one as high as 7.5, while others have fallen to a flat 6.

Mariners vs Pirates trend

The Pirates have hit the Under in 34 of their last 58 games (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Pirates.

Mariners vs Pirates game info

Mariners vs Pirates latest injuries

Mariners vs Pirates weather

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